Week 5 · Sunday 13:00

NYGNYG at WASWAS

Northwest Stadium · outdoors · Division game

NYG moneyline+150
WAS moneyline-180
SpreadWAS -3.5
Total41.5

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceWAS 61%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total46.9points, both teams
Leo marginNYG by 2.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Athan Kaliakmanis WAS QB1 6.63211 196
Jameis Winston NYG QB1 6.528.21.13 189

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Cam Skattebo NYG RB1 416.20.94 59
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS RB1 4.113.214 57
Rachaad White WAS RB2 4.3713 32
Najee Harris NYG RB2 4.37.40.93 29

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Malik Nabers NYG WR1 6.97.31.14 57
Terry McLaurin WAS WR1 7.26.913 51
Malachi Fields NYG WR2 10.23.91.14 45
Darnell Mooney NYG WR3 8.13.41.14 33
Antonio Williams WAS WR2 5.94.314 28
Dyami Brown WAS WR3 5.7314 20
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

NYG Game status

2 out

  • Out Chauncey GolstonDE Neck
  • Out Jason PinnockS Concussion
WAS Game status

6 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Marcus MariotaQB Knee
  • Out Stefon DiggsWR Hamstring
  • Out Charles OmenihuDE Groin / Ankle
  • Out Nick CrossS Illness
  • Out Percy ButlerS Hamstring
  • Out Tyler OwensS Hamstring
  • Questionable Jeremy McNicholsRB Quadricep
  • Questionable Terry McLaurinWR Hamstring
  • Questionable Deatrich WiseDE Quadricep
  • Questionable Trey AmosCB Ankle

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

NYG This season WAS
44 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 49
45 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 46
46 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 38
46 Overall 42
QB 47 · OFF 53 · DEF 39 Last season QB 46 · OFF 48 · DEF 34

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NYG Per game, this season WAS
0.75Interceptions thrown0.25
1.50Interceptions caught0.75
0.50Fumbles lost0.25
0.75Fumbles forced0.75
2.25Takeaways1.50
1.25Giveaways0.50
+1Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NYG Offense WAS
+0.014EPA per dropback+0.009
-2.2Completion % over expected-0.8
2.3%Interception rate1.6%
8.7%Sack rate taken5.4%
-0.054Rush EPA per carry-0.049
4.5%Explosive play rate4.7%
NYG Defense WAS
+0.037EPA allowed per play+0.084
5.8Yards allowed per play6.06
2.4%Sack rate3.4%
1.7%Interception rate forced1.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NYG, right is WAS.

NYG This season WAS
4Games4
182.3Pass yards/g196.5
110.5Rush yards/g124
6Passing TD8
3Interceptions thrown1
212.3Pass yards allowed/g254.5
109Rush yards allowed/g93.5
6Interceptions forced3
NYG Last season WAS
217.8Pass yards/g195.8
129.1Rush yards/g134.7
21Passing TD19
10Interceptions thrown12
229.9Pass yards allowed/g257.1
145.3Rush yards allowed/g141.8

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

NYG 2026

Quarterback Leo QB44

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jameis Winston343/78 55.1%479159.7 3 / 36.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Cam Skattebo468 2353.51
Najee Harris322 8840

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Malik Nabers WR14 18/2669.2%208 521
Malachi Fields WR24 8/1553.3%126 31.51
Isaiah Likely TE4 22/3562.9%190 47.52
WAS 2026

Quarterback Leo QB49

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jayden Daniels229/51 56.9%260130 3 / 05.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt456 1572.81
Rachaad White322 1004.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR14 18/3158.1%170 42.53
Terry McLaurin WR23 10/2245.5%141 471
Chig Okonkwo TE2 4/757.1%21 10.50

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NYG 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jaxson Dart14216/339 63.7%2272162.3 15 / 56.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.15176 7404.22
Devin Singletary17119 4373.75

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR116 92/14065.7%1014 63.44
Darius Slayton WR214 37/6358.7%538 38.41
Theo Johnson TE15 45/7460.8%528 35.25
WAS 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Marcus Mariota10139/227 61.2%1695169.5 10 / 77.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt17175 8054.68
Chris Rodriguez Jr.12112 5004.56

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR116 72/9972.7%727 45.45
Terry McLaurin WR210 38/6063.3%582 58.23
Zach Ertz TE13 50/7269.4%504 38.84

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS, 30%) and Cam Skattebo (NYG, 29%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NYG Leo’s chance
  1. Cam Skattebo RB1 29% no TD
  2. Malik Nabers WR1 28% scored
  3. Malachi Fields WR2 25% no TD
WAS Leo’s chance
  1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB1 30% scored
  2. Terry McLaurin WR1 26% no TD
  3. Antonio Williams WR2 23% no TD

Final result

NYG 27 – 27 WAS (OT)

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

NYG
Jameis Winston QB 33/54326 yds3 TD0 INT
Cam Skattebo RB 13 car59 yds0 TD2 rec, 12 yds
Najee Harris RB 5 car9 yds0 TD1 rec, 5 yds
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB 3 car6 yds0 TD2 rec, 25 yds
Malik Nabers WR 11/20121 yds1 TD
Isaiah Likely TE 11/1394 yds2 TD
Theo Johnson TE 2/335 yds0 TD
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB 17/25199 yds0 TD0 INT
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB 11 car82 yds1 TD
Rachaad White RB 7 car18 yds0 TD1 rec, 2 yds
Austin Ekeler RB 3 car-1 yds0 TD1 rec, 15 yds
Terry McLaurin WR 4/462 yds0 TD
Chig Okonkwo TE 4/660 yds0 TD
Antonio Williams WR 3/331 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerWAS 61%—TIE wonPUSH
Total points46.941.554OVER · RIGHT
MarginNYG by 2.9WAS −3.5Pick'emNYG +3.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jameis Winston NYG 200.5189 UNDER 326 137 More attempts (54 vs 28.2 expected) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS 46.557 OVER 82 25 More efficient (7.5 vs 4.1 yds/carry) RIGHT
Najee Harris NYG 27.529 OVER 9 20 Less efficient (1.8 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG
Rachaad White WAS 20.532 OVER 18 14 Less efficient (2.6 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG
Cam Skattebo NYG 61.559 no side 59 0 On target NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Malik Nabers NYG 56.557 no side 121 64 More targets (20 vs 7.3 expected) NO LEAN
Malachi Fields NYG 25.545 OVER 20 25 Fewer targets (2 vs 3.9 expected) WRONG
Darnell Mooney NYG 17.533 OVER 14 19 Less efficient (2 vs 8.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Dyami Brown WAS —20 no side 2 18 Less efficient (1 vs 5.7 yds/tgt)
Terry McLaurin WAS 41.551 OVER 62 11 More efficient (15.5 vs 7.2 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Antonio Williams WAS 35.528 UNDER 31 3 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.