Week 10 · Sunday 13:00

HOU at CLE

Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Texans at 64%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 9, 5:45 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

HOU This season CLE

58 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 36

55 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 37

62 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 58

58 Overall 47

QB 46 · OFF 45 · DEF 75 Last season QB 22 · OFF 24 · DEF 64

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

HOU	Per game, this season	CLE
0.25	Interceptions thrown	0.33
0.50	Interceptions caught	0.67
0.25	Fumbles lost	0.78
0.63	Fumbles forced	1.33
1.13	Takeaways	2.00
0.50	Giveaways	1.11
+0.63	Net turnover margin	+0.89

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

HOU	Offense	CLE
+0.105	EPA per dropback	-0.089
+0.2	Completion % over expected	-2.2
1.2%	Interception rate	1.7%
5.3%	Sack rate taken	10.8%
-0.101	Rush EPA per carry	-0.116
6.1%	Explosive play rate	5.3%
HOU	Defense	CLE
-0.046	EPA allowed per play	-0.031
5.42	Yards allowed per play	5.4
5.5%	Sack rate	4.8%
1.2%	Interception rate forced	1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is HOU, right is CLE.

HOU	This season	CLE
8	Games	9
282.3	Pass yards/g	233.9
87.1	Rush yards/g	97.3
16	Passing TD	9
2	Interceptions thrown	3
257	Pass yards allowed/g	220.2
103	Rush yards allowed/g	130.6
4	Interceptions forced	6
HOU	Last season	CLE
232.5	Pass yards/g	185.4
108.6	Rush yards/g	97
26	Passing TD	16
14	Interceptions thrown	18
200.7	Pass yards allowed/g	189.4
92.7	Rush yards allowed/g	116.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

HOU 2026

Quarterback Leo QB58

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
C.J. Stroud	8	181/282	64.2%	2251	281.4	16 / 2	8

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Woody Marks	8	95	341	3.6	2
David Montgomery	5	52	138	2.7	2

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Xavier Hutchinson WR1	8	24/45	53.3%	287	35.9	2
Nico Collins WR2	6	28/39	71.8%	384	64	4
Dalton Schultz TE	8	35/47	74.5%	364	45.5	0

CLE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB36

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Deshaun Watson	8	163/249	65.5%	1806	225.8	7 / 3	7.3

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Quinshon Judkins	8	116	385	3.3	3
Dylan Sampson	4	15	73	4.9	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Denzel Boston WR1	9	32/60	53.3%	507	56.3	3
KC Concepcion WR2	9	37/55	67.3%	437	48.6	1
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	9	37/53	69.8%	453	50.3	4

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

HOU 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
C.J. Stroud	16	314/502	62.5%	3503	218.9	21 / 13	7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Woody Marks	18	229	832	3.6	3
Nick Chubb	17	136	568	4.2	3

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Nico Collins WR1	16	74/127	58.3%	1138	71.1	6
Jayden Higgins WR2	19	50/82	61%	623	32.8	6
Dalton Schultz TE	19	87/112	77.7%	836	44	3

CLE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB22

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Shedeur Sanders	8	120/212	56.6%	1400	175	7 / 10	6.6

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Quinshon Judkins	14	230	827	3.6	7
Dylan Sampson	15	65	175	2.7	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Jerry Jeudy WR1	17	50/106	47.2%	602	35.4	2
Isaiah Bond WR2	15	18/44	40.9%	338	22.5	0
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	16	72/107	67.3%	731	45.7	6

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

HOU 2026

1. Nico Collins WR 4 0 rush · 4 rec
2. Foster Moreau TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
3. David Montgomery RB 3 2 rush · 1 rec

CLE 2026

1. Harold Fannin Jr. TE 4 0 rush · 4 rec
2. Quinshon Judkins RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
3. Denzel Boston WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.