Week 7 · Sunday 13:00
NYG
at
HOU
Reliant Stadium · astroturf
NYG moneyline+400
HOU moneyline-535
SpreadHOU -10.5
Total42.5
New York Giants at Houston Texans
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceHOU 71%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44.2points, both teams
Leo marginHOU by 5.8expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| C.J. Stroud HOU QB1 |
7.7 | 35.3 | 0.9 | 6 |
226 |
| Jameis Winston NYG QB1 |
6.3 | 31.6 | 1.1 | 5 |
209 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Cam Skattebo NYG RB1 |
4.1 | 15.1 | 0.9 | 5 |
54 |
| Woody Marks HOU RB1 |
3.8 | 10.2 | 1.2 | 6 |
46 |
| Devin Singletary NYG RB2 |
4.1 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 3 |
20 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Malik Nabers NYG WR1 |
9.6 | 9.6 | 1.1 | 6 |
103 |
| Nico Collins HOU WR1 |
11.6 | 8 | 0.9 | 4 |
84 |
| Malachi Fields NYG WR2 |
9.3 | 4 | 1.1 | 6 |
44 |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU WR2 |
8 | 5 | 0.9 | 6 |
38 |
| Kayshon Boutte HOU WR3 |
7.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 6 |
28 |
| Darnell Mooney NYG WR3 |
2.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 6 |
16 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
NYG
Game status
3 out · 1 doubtful · 4 questionable
- Out
Tremaine EdmundsLB
Shoulder
- Out
Greg Newsome IICB
Concussion
- Out
Jevon HollandS
Concussion
- Doubtful
Theo JohnsonTE
Neck
- Questionable
Jermaine EluemunorT
Calf
- Questionable
Marcus MbowT
Knee
- Questionable
Paulson AdeboCB
Knee
- Questionable
Tyler NubinS
Neck
HOU
Game status
4 out · 1 questionable
- Out
David MontgomeryRB
Groin
- Out
Blake FisherT
Thumb
- Out
Jalen PitreS
Shoulder
- Out
Reed BlankenshipS
Concussion / Hand
- Questionable
Tank DellWR
Knee
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
NYG
This season
HOU
45
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
55
47
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
53
44
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
63
45
Overall
58
QB 47 · OFF 53 · DEF 39
Last season
QB 46 · OFF 45 · DEF 75
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| NYG |
Per game, this season |
HOU |
| 1.00 | Interceptions thrown | 0.17 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Interceptions caught | 0.50 |
|---|
| 0.67 | Fumbles lost | 0.33 |
|---|
| 0.83 | Fumbles forced | 0.67 |
|---|
| 1.83 | Takeaways | 1.17 |
|---|
| 1.67 | Giveaways | 0.50 |
|---|
| +0.17 | Net turnover margin | +0.67 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| NYG |
Offense |
HOU |
| +0.019 | EPA per dropback | +0.077 |
|---|
| -2.3 | Completion % over expected | +1.2 |
|---|
| 2.5% | Interception rate | 1.1% |
|---|
| 8.0% | Sack rate taken | 5.7% |
|---|
| -0.060 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.102 |
|---|
| 5.3% | Explosive play rate | 6.2% |
|---|
| NYG |
Defense |
HOU |
| +0.037 | EPA allowed per play | -0.061 |
|---|
| 5.76 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3 |
|---|
| 2.8% | Sack rate | 4.9% |
|---|
| 1.3% | Interception rate forced | 1.2% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NYG, right is HOU.
| NYG |
This season |
HOU |
| 6 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 241.7 | Pass yards/g | 285.7 |
|---|
| 104.8 | Rush yards/g | 84.8 |
|---|
| 11 | Passing TD | 9 |
|---|
| 6 | Interceptions thrown | 1 |
|---|
| 198.7 | Pass yards allowed/g | 264.5 |
|---|
| 135.5 | Rush yards allowed/g | 83 |
|---|
| 6 | Interceptions forced | 3 |
|---|
| NYG |
Last season |
HOU |
| 217.8 | Pass yards/g | 232.5 |
|---|
| 129.1 | Rush yards/g | 108.6 |
|---|
| 21 | Passing TD | 26 |
|---|
| 10 | Interceptions thrown | 14 |
|---|
| 229.9 | Pass yards allowed/g | 200.7 |
|---|
| 145.3 | Rush yards allowed/g | 92.7 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
NYG
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB45
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 90/158 |
57% | 957 | 191.4 |
7 / 5 | 6.1 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 5 | 81 |
294 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 31 |
99 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Malik Nabers WR1 | 6 |
41/61 | 67.2% | 494 |
82.3 | 2 |
| Malachi Fields WR2 | 6 |
12/25 | 48% | 165 |
27.5 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely TE | 6 |
39/59 | 66.1% | 383 |
63.8 | 5 |
HOU
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB55
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 143/219 |
65.3% | 1714 | 285.7 |
9 / 1 | 7.8 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Woody Marks | 6 | 58 |
205 | 3.5 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 5 | 52 |
138 | 2.7 | 2 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Xavier Hutchinson WR1 | 6 |
18/34 | 52.9% | 241 |
40.2 | 0 |
| Nico Collins WR2 | 4 |
22/30 | 73.3% | 323 |
80.8 | 3 |
| Dalton Schultz TE | 6 |
28/37 | 75.7% | 277 |
46.2 | 0 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
NYG
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB47
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 14 | 216/339 |
63.7% | 2272 | 162.3 |
15 / 5 | 6.7 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 15 | 176 |
740 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Devin Singletary | 17 | 119 |
437 | 3.7 | 5 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR1 | 16 |
92/140 | 65.7% | 1014 |
63.4 | 4 |
| Darius Slayton WR2 | 14 |
37/63 | 58.7% | 538 |
38.4 | 1 |
| Theo Johnson TE | 15 |
45/74 | 60.8% | 528 |
35.2 | 5 |
HOU
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB46
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16 | 314/502 |
62.5% | 3503 | 218.9 |
21 / 13 | 7 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Woody Marks | 18 | 229 |
832 | 3.6 | 3 |
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 136 |
568 | 4.2 | 3 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Nico Collins WR1 | 16 |
74/127 | 58.3% | 1138 |
71.1 | 6 |
| Jayden Higgins WR2 | 19 |
50/82 | 61% | 623 |
32.8 | 6 |
| Dalton Schultz TE | 19 |
87/112 | 77.7% | 836 |
44 | 3 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Nico Collins (HOU, 43%) and Cam Skattebo (NYG, 39%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NYG
Leo’s chance
- Cam Skattebo
RB1
39%
- Malik Nabers
WR1
36%
- Isaiah Likely
TE1
33%
HOU
Leo’s chance
- Nico Collins
WR1
43%
- Woody Marks
RB1
36%
- Dalton Schultz
TE1
25%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.