Week 9 · Sunday 16:05

HOUHOU at LACLAC

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

HOU moneyline-218
LAC moneyline+180
SpreadHOU -4.5
Total40.5

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 9 card →

Leo gives the Houston Texans a 69% chance to beat the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday afternoon, November 8, at SoFi Stadium, in Week 9. That is above 60% at a price better than -230, so the moneyline is a call. Leo projects 41.3 total points (posted total 40.5) and expects the Texans by 5.7 (posted spread Texans −4.5). Leo's calls: moneyline HOU -218, spread HOU -4.5 and total PASS. Starting quarterbacks: C.J. Stroud for the Texans and Justin Herbert for the Chargers.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 8), and Leo’s numbers are an early read that updates until kickoff, when the last read is frozen. Market numbers are the latest posted line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

MoneylineHOU -218Leo gives HOU 69%
SpreadHOU -4.5Leo HOU by 5.7
TotalPASSLeo within 1.5 points of the line

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Leo win chanceHOU 69%chance to win; the moneyline call is in the box above
Leo total41.3points, both teams
Leo marginHOU by 5.7expected winning margin

Why Leo has the Texans at 69%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 3, 2:52 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

HOU This season LAC
55 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 25
52 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 26
59 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 60
55 Overall 43
QB 46 · OFF 45 · DEF 75 Last season QB 43 · OFF 45 · DEF 66

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

HOU Per game, this season LAC
0.14Interceptions thrown1.43
0.43Interceptions caught0.86
0.29Fumbles lost0.86
0.57Fumbles forced1.29
1.00Takeaways2.14
0.43Giveaways2.29
+0.57Net turnover margin-0.14

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

HOU Offense LAC
+0.072EPA per dropback-0.186
+0.5Completion % over expected-2.6
1.0%Interception rate3.8%
5.6%Sack rate taken9.8%
-0.104Rush EPA per carry-0.135
6.0%Explosive play rate4.9%
HOU Defense LAC
-0.033EPA allowed per play-0.062
5.44Yards allowed per play5.47
4.8%Sack rate3.6%
1.1%Interception rate forced1.6%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is HOU, right is LAC.

HOU This season LAC
7Games7
266.7Pass yards/g199.7
84.7Rush yards/g111.1
11Passing TD5
1Interceptions thrown10
262.7Pass yards allowed/g207.7
98Rush yards allowed/g124.6
3Interceptions forced6
HOU Last season LAC
232.5Pass yards/g228.4
108.6Rush yards/g119.7
26Passing TD26
14Interceptions thrown14
200.7Pass yards allowed/g199
92.7Rush yards allowed/g107.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

HOU 2026

Quarterback Leo QB55

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud7160/247 64.8%1867266.7 11 / 17.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Woody Marks777 2713.52
David Montgomery552 1382.72

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Hutchinson WR17 21/4052.5%258 36.91
Nico Collins WR25 24/3568.6%329 65.83
Dalton Schultz TE7 33/4376.7%322 460
LAC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB25

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert7131/212 61.8%1398199.7 5 / 106.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Omarion Hampton789 3093.53
Keaton Mitchell739 1453.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Harris WR16 18/2864.3%256 42.70
Quentin Johnston WR26 12/2646.2%202 33.70
Oronde Gadsden II TE7 17/2665.4%155 22.11

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

HOU 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud16314/502 62.5%3503218.9 21 / 137

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Woody Marks18229 8323.63
Nick Chubb17136 5684.23

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Nico Collins WR116 74/12758.3%1138 71.16
Jayden Higgins WR219 50/8261%623 32.86
Dalton Schultz TE19 87/11277.7%836 443
LAC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert17359/543 66.1%3886228.6 26 / 137.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kimani Vidal14166 6744.13
Omarion Hampton10125 5444.44

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Keenan Allen WR118 84/13064.6%802 44.64
Ladd McConkey WR217 69/11062.7%821 48.36
Oronde Gadsden II TE16 52/7272.2%694 43.43

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

HOU 2026
  1. Foster Moreau TE 3 0 rush · 3 rec
  2. David Montgomery RB 3 2 rush · 1 rec
  3. Nico Collins WR 3 0 rush · 3 rec
LAC 2026
  1. Omarion Hampton RB 3 3 rush · 0 rec
  2. Kimani Vidal RB 2 1 rush · 1 rec
  3. Keaton Mitchell RB 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

Keep reading

All Week 9 NFL predictions →Every game that week: Leo’s win chance, spread, total and touchdown scorer chances

Every NFL game · NFL team predictions · Leo’s NFL record · Injury tracker · Free NFL card by email

More Houston Texans games

More Los Angeles Chargers games