Week 7 · Sunday 13:00
CLE
at
TEN
Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass
CLE moneyline-130
TEN moneyline+110
SpreadCLE -1.5
Total36.5
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Every game this week on Leo’s Week 7 card →
This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 6), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.
Leo’s read
What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 25, 7:52 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.
Leo win chanceCLE 54%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total37points, both teams
Leo marginCLE by 2.5expected winning margin
Passing yards
| Player | yds/att | att | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Deshaun Watson CLE QB1 |
6.8 | 29.6 | 1.1 | 6 |
206 |
| Cam Ward TEN QB1 |
5.7 | 30.5 | 1 | 6 |
159 |
Rushing yards
| Player | yds/carry | car | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Tony Pollard TEN RB1 |
4.4 | 14.5 | 1 | 6 |
64 |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE RB1 |
3.7 | 15.2 | 1.1 | 5 |
60 |
| Audric Estimé CLE RB2 |
4.3 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 1 |
39 |
| Nicholas Singleton TEN RB2 |
4.2 | 2.8 | 1 | 2 |
13 |
Receiving yards
| Player | yds/tgt | tgt | opp adj | games | Leo |
|---|
| Justin Jefferson CLE WR3 |
8.7 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 5 |
63 |
| Carnell Tate TEN WR1 |
7.4 | 7.7 | 1 | 6 |
58 |
| Denzel Boston CLE WR2 |
8.5 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 6 |
56 |
| KC Concepcion CLE WR1 |
6.1 | 6 | 1.1 | 6 |
42 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR2 |
5.2 | 7.1 | 1 | 6 |
39 |
| Elic Ayomanor TEN WR3 |
10.6 | 3.4 | 1 | 6 |
38 |
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Injury report
The official Week 7 report for each side, as captured Sun, Oct 25, 7:53 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.
CLE
Game status
4 out · 2 questionable
- Out
Dillon GabrielQB
Back
- Out
Teven JenkinsG
Back
- Out
Kalia DavisDT
Quadricep
- Out
Mike Hall Jr.DT
Ankle
- Questionable
Quincy WilliamsLB
Neck
- Questionable
Denzel WardCB
Hand
TEN
Game status
5 questionable
- Questionable
Tyjae SpearsRB
Not injury related - resting player / Knee
- Questionable
Calvin RidleyWR
Hip
- Questionable
Dorian MausiLB
Foot
- Questionable
Kevin Winston Jr.S
Quadricep
- Questionable
Tony AdamsS
Ankle
Leo ratings — head to head
Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.
CLE
This season
TEN
33
QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways
31
34
Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security
32
62
DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways
42
48
Overall
37
QB 22 · OFF 24 · DEF 64
Last season
QB 31 · OFF 32 · DEF 37
The turnover battle
Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.
| CLE |
Per game, this season |
TEN |
| 0.33 | Interceptions thrown | 0.67 |
|---|
| 0.67 | Interceptions caught | 0.67 |
|---|
| 0.67 | Fumbles lost | 0.33 |
|---|
| 1.17 | Fumbles forced | 0.33 |
|---|
| 1.83 | Takeaways | 1.00 |
|---|
| 1.00 | Giveaways | 1.00 |
|---|
| +0.83 | Net turnover margin | 0 |
|---|
Efficiency detail
The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.
| CLE |
Offense |
TEN |
| -0.118 | EPA per dropback | -0.194 |
|---|
| -3.6 | Completion % over expected | -2.0 |
|---|
| 2.0% | Interception rate | 1.9% |
|---|
| 10.6% | Sack rate taken | 6.8% |
|---|
| -0.109 | Rush EPA per carry | -0.073 |
|---|
| 4.6% | Explosive play rate | 4.3% |
|---|
| CLE |
Defense |
TEN |
| -0.058 | EPA allowed per play | +0.052 |
|---|
| 5.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.71 |
|---|
| 5.1% | Sack rate | 4.1% |
|---|
| 1.1% | Interception rate forced | 0.8% |
|---|
Team comparison
Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CLE, right is TEN.
| CLE |
This season |
TEN |
| 6 | Games | 6 |
|---|
| 195.7 | Pass yards/g | 166.3 |
|---|
| 94 | Rush yards/g | 82.8 |
|---|
| 7 | Passing TD | 4 |
|---|
| 2 | Interceptions thrown | 4 |
|---|
| 227.3 | Pass yards allowed/g | 235.3 |
|---|
| 112.3 | Rush yards allowed/g | 122.5 |
|---|
| 4 | Interceptions forced | 4 |
|---|
| CLE |
Last season |
TEN |
| 185.4 | Pass yards/g | 190.6 |
|---|
| 97 | Rush yards/g | 93.5 |
|---|
| 16 | Passing TD | 15 |
|---|
| 18 | Interceptions thrown | 8 |
|---|
| 189.4 | Pass yards allowed/g | 248.3 |
|---|
| 116.4 | Rush yards allowed/g | 114.6 |
|---|
This season
Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.
CLE
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB33
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 111/174 |
63.8% | 1174 | 195.7 |
7 / 2 | 6.7 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 5 | 73 |
221 | 3 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 11 |
72 | 6.5 | 1 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| KC Concepcion WR1 | 6 |
22/35 | 62.9% | 186 |
31 | 0 |
| Denzel Boston WR2 | 6 |
17/34 | 50% | 345 |
57.5 | 3 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE | 6 |
19/30 | 63.3% | 166 |
27.7 | 3 |
TEN
2026
Quarterback
Leo QB31
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Cam Ward | 6 | 109/177 |
61.6% | 998 | 166.3 |
4 / 4 | 5.6 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 87 |
349 | 4 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 18 |
66 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Carnell Tate WR1 | 6 |
29/44 | 65.9% | 344 |
57.3 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR2 | 6 |
25/37 | 67.6% | 198 |
33 | 2 |
| Gunnar Helm TE | 5 |
9/13 | 69.2% | 60 |
12 | 0 |
Last season
The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.
CLE
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB22
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 8 | 120/212 |
56.6% | 1400 | 175 |
7 / 10 | 6.6 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 14 | 230 |
827 | 3.6 | 7 |
| Dylan Sampson | 15 | 65 |
175 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Jerry Jeudy WR1 | 17 |
50/106 | 47.2% | 602 |
35.4 | 2 |
| Isaiah Bond WR2 | 15 |
18/44 | 40.9% | 338 |
22.5 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE | 16 |
72/107 | 67.3% | 731 |
45.7 | 6 |
TEN
2025
Quarterback
Leo QB31
| Player | G | C/ATT | Comp% | Yards | Y/G | TD/INT | Y/A |
|---|
| Cam Ward | 17 | 323/540 |
59.8% | 3169 | 186.4 |
15 / 7 | 5.9 |
Running back
| Player | G | Car | Yards | Y/C | TD |
|---|
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 242 |
1082 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 13 | 72 |
283 | 3.9 | 2 |
Receivers
| Player | G | Rec/Tgt | Catch% | Yards | Y/G | TD |
|---|
| Elic Ayomanor WR1 | 16 |
41/89 | 46.1% | 515 |
32.2 | 4 |
| Chimere Dike WR2 | 17 |
48/74 | 64.9% | 423 |
24.9 | 4 |
| Chig Okonkwo TE | 17 |
56/79 | 70.9% | 560 |
32.9 | 2 |
Touchdown props
Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.
Most likely to score: Quinshon Judkins (CLE, 36%) and Tony Pollard (TEN, 32%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CLE
Leo’s chance
- Quinshon Judkins
RB1
36%
- Harold Fannin Jr.
TE1
23%
- KC Concepcion
WR1
23%
TEN
Leo’s chance
- Tony Pollard
RB1
32%
- Carnell Tate
WR1
27%
- Wan'Dale Robinson
WR2
22%
Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.