Week 8 · Sunday 13:00

CLECLE at PITPIT

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · Division game

CLE moneyline+164
PIT moneyline-198
SpreadPIT -3.5
Total38.5

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 8 card →

Leo gives the Pittsburgh Steelers a 61% chance to beat the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon, November 1, at Acrisure Stadium, in Week 8. That is above 60%, so it counts as a Leo pick. Leo projects 40.1 total points (posted total 38.5) and expects the Steelers by 5.9 (posted spread Steelers −3.5). The players Leo thinks are most likely to score a touchdown: Jaylen Warren (42%) and Quinshon Judkins (39%). Starting quarterbacks: Deshaun Watson for the Browns and Aaron Rodgers for the Steelers.

Final: Steelers 27, Browns 6. Leo gave the Pittsburgh Steelers a 61% chance, so the winner read was right. The game totaled 33 points against Leo's 40.1 and the posted 38.5. Touchdowns: Rico Dowdle, Pat Freiermuth and Jaylen Warren.

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 7), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager. Calls are a public test, graded after every game.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo pickPIT 61%Leo gives this team more than 60%; price -185 at the read
Leo total40.1points, both teams
Leo marginPIT by 5.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Deshaun Watson CLE QB1 7.130.317 205
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB1 6.536.10.97 201

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jaylen Warren PIT RB1 4.814.517 74
Quinshon Judkins CLE RB1 3.715.40.96 50
Rico Dowdle PIT RB2 4.58.314 41
Audric Estimé CLE RB2 4.38.60.91 32

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
KC Concepcion CLE WR1 7.56.517 52
DK Metcalf PIT WR1 6.37.90.97 47
Germie Bernard PIT WR2 7.360.96 43
Denzel Boston CLE WR2 6.36.117 41
Jerry Jeudy CLE WR3 84.616 40
Ben Skowronek PIT WR3 8.20.80.93 10

Why Leo has the Steelers at 61%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from the inputs frozen before kickoff.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

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Injury report

The official Week 8 report for each side, as captured Mon, Nov 2, 7:03 AM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

CLE Game status

3 questionable

  • Questionable Tytus HowardT Concussion
  • Questionable Myles HardenCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Daniel ThomasS Ankle
PIT Game status

2 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Brandin EcholsCB Hamstring
  • Out Doneiko SlaughterCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Ben SkowronekWR Calf

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

CLE This season PIT
34 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 44
37 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 46
61 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 60
49 Overall 53
QB 22 · OFF 24 · DEF 64 Last season QB 51 · OFF 49 · DEF 52

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CLE Per game, this season PIT
0.43Interceptions thrown0.71
0.71Interceptions caught1.00
0.71Fumbles lost0.29
1.14Fumbles forced1.14
1.86Takeaways2.14
1.14Giveaways1.00
+0.71Net turnover margin+1.14

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CLE Offense PIT
-0.094EPA per dropback-0.058
-2.5Completion % over expected-0.8
2.1%Interception rate1.8%
9.8%Sack rate taken6.9%
-0.072Rush EPA per carry+0.009
5.2%Explosive play rate5.6%
CLE Defense PIT
-0.050EPA allowed per play-0.013
5.27Yards allowed per play5.44
4.8%Sack rate4.3%
1.1%Interception rate forced1.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CLE, right is PIT.

CLE This season PIT
7Games7
211.7Pass yards/g242.7
106.7Rush yards/g106.1
7Passing TD13
3Interceptions thrown5
220.7Pass yards allowed/g230
116.4Rush yards allowed/g91
5Interceptions forced7
CLE Last season PIT
185.4Pass yards/g210
97Rush yards/g101.1
16Passing TD26
18Interceptions thrown10
189.4Pass yards allowed/g260.4
116.4Rush yards allowed/g115.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

CLE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB34

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Deshaun Watson7136/210 64.8%1482211.7 7 / 37.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins690 3173.53
Jaleel McLaughlin511 726.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
KC Concepcion WR17 30/4566.7%315 450
Denzel Boston WR27 20/4247.6%372 53.13
Harold Fannin Jr. TE7 25/3964.1%257 36.73
PIT 2026

Quarterback Leo QB44

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers7162/263 61.6%1699242.7 13 / 56.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren7102 5615.51
Rico Dowdle431 1183.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR17 32/5855.2%374 53.41
Germie Bernard WR26 27/3773%254 42.31
Pat Freiermuth TE7 23/3369.7%200 28.64

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CLE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB22

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Shedeur Sanders8120/212 56.6%1400175 7 / 106.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins14230 8273.67
Dylan Sampson1565 1752.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jerry Jeudy WR117 50/10647.2%602 35.42
Isaiah Bond WR215 18/4440.9%338 22.50
Harold Fannin Jr. TE16 72/10767.3%731 45.76
PIT 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers17344/531 64.8%3468204 24 / 86.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren17223 10014.56
Kenny Gainwell18120 5574.65

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR116 61/10458.7%892 55.86
Calvin Austin III WR215 34/6155.7%380 25.33
Jonnu Smith TE18 40/5770.2%221 12.32

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jaylen Warren (PIT, 42%) and Quinshon Judkins (CLE, 39%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CLE Leo’s chance
  1. Quinshon Judkins RB1 39% no TD
  2. KC Concepcion WR1 23% no TD
  3. Harold Fannin Jr. TE1 23% no TD
PIT Leo’s chance
  1. Jaylen Warren RB1 42% scored
  2. DK Metcalf WR1 34% no TD
  3. Rico Dowdle RB2 25% scored

Final result

CLE 6 – 27 PIT

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

CLE
Deshaun Watson QB 27/39324 yds0 TD0 INT
Quinshon Judkins RB 11 car25 yds0 TD2 rec, 24 yds
Dylan Sampson RB 1 car7 yds0 TD6 rec, 62 yds
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 10/12154 yds0 TD
Dylan Sampson RB 6/862 yds0 TD
Denzel Boston WR 6/1137 yds0 TD
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB 13/25172 yds0 TD1 INT
Jaylen Warren RB 17 car143 yds1 TD1 rec, 0 yds
Rico Dowdle RB 15 car56 yds1 TD
Pat Freiermuth TE 1 car1 yds1 TD2 rec, 35 yds
Darnell Washington TE 3/594 yds0 TD
Pat Freiermuth TE 2/235 yds0 TD
Germie Bernard WR 5/530 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerPIT 61%—PIT wonRIGHT
Total points40.138.533no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginPIT by 5.9PIT −3.5PIT by 21PIT −3.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off, how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Deshaun Watson CLE 207.5205 no side 324 119 More attempts (39 vs 30.3 expected) NO LEAN
Aaron Rodgers PIT 214.5201 UNDER 172 29 Fewer attempts (25 vs 36.1 expected) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jaylen Warren PIT 64.574 OVER 143 69 More efficient (8.4 vs 4.8 yds/carry) RIGHT
Quinshon Judkins CLE 46.550 OVER 25 25 Fewer carries (11 vs 15.4 expected) WRONG
Rico Dowdle PIT 31.541 OVER 56 15 More carries (15 vs 8.3 expected) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
DK Metcalf PIT 53.547 UNDER 4 43 Less efficient (0.7 vs 6.3 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Jerry Jeudy CLE 22.540 OVER 0 40 Fewer targets (1 vs 4.6 expected) WRONG
KC Concepcion CLE 46.552 OVER 37 15 Fewer targets (4 vs 6.5 expected) WRONG
Germie Bernard PIT 43.543 no side 30 13 Fewer targets (5 vs 6 expected) NO LEAN
Denzel Boston CLE 47.541 UNDER 37 4 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.

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