Week 6 · Sunday 13:00

BALBAL at CLECLE

Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · Division game

BAL moneyline-170
CLE moneyline+142
SpreadBAL -3
Total39.5

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 12:11 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceBAL 71%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total46.6points, both teams
Leo marginBAL by 5.5expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Deshaun Watson CLE QB1 6.930.115 208
Tyler Huntley BAL QB1 6.82612 176

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Derrick Henry BAL RB1 4.821.615 106
Quinshon Judkins CLE RB1 3.714.915 55
Justice Hill BAL RB2 4.93.315 18
Jaleel McLaughlin CLE RB2 4.71.613 9

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Zay Flowers BAL WR1 11.67.514 95
Denzel Boston CLE WR1 10.55.915 68
Justin Jefferson CLE WR3 8.76.615 63
Rashod Bateman BAL WR2 11.53.615 47
KC Concepcion CLE WR2 55.915 34
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL WR3 3.73.211 16
Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

BAL Game status

4 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Lamar JacksonQB Ankle
  • Out Matthew HibnerTE Hand
  • Out Cam JurgensC Concussion
  • Out Broderick WashingtonDE Ankle
  • Questionable Ja'Kobi LaneWR Wrist
  • Questionable Andrew VorheesG Foot
  • Questionable Emery Jones Jr.G Ankle
CLE Game status

5 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Dillon GabrielQB Back
  • Out Dylan SampsonRB Knee
  • Out Teven JenkinsG Back
  • Out Kalia DavisDT Quadricep
  • Out Mike Hall Jr.DT Ankle
  • Questionable Quinshon JudkinsRB Ankle
  • Questionable Derek BarnettDE Ankle
  • Questionable Mason GrahamDT Knee / Ankle
  • Questionable Carson SchwesingerLB Ankle

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

BAL This season CLE
64 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 33
66 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 33
45 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 61
56 Overall 47
QB 51 · OFF 55 · DEF 45 Last season QB 22 · OFF 24 · DEF 64

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

BAL Per game, this season CLE
0.20Interceptions thrown0.40
0.60Interceptions caught0.80
0.40Fumbles lost0.80
1.00Fumbles forced1.20
1.60Takeaways2.00
0.60Giveaways1.20
+1Net turnover margin+0.8

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

BAL Offense CLE
+0.155EPA per dropback-0.108
+5.6Completion % over expected-3.9
1.6%Interception rate2.2%
8.4%Sack rate taken10.0%
+0.068Rush EPA per carry-0.123
7.0%Explosive play rate5.0%
BAL Defense CLE
+0.023EPA allowed per play-0.055
5.58Yards allowed per play5.36
3.0%Sack rate5.1%
1.0%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is BAL, right is CLE.

BAL This season CLE
5Games5
246.2Pass yards/g202
164.4Rush yards/g94.2
8Passing TD7
1Interceptions thrown2
238Pass yards allowed/g239.8
102Rush yards allowed/g117.4
3Interceptions forced4
BAL Last season CLE
192.8Pass yards/g185.4
156.6Rush yards/g97
23Passing TD16
11Interceptions thrown18
259Pass yards allowed/g189.4
106.6Rush yards allowed/g116.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

BAL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Lamar Jackson468/96 70.8%967241.8 6 / 110.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry5113 4764.27
Justice Hill518 1337.40

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Zay Flowers WR14 26/3183.9%405 101.32
Rashod Bateman WR25 16/2176.2%233 46.61
Mark Andrews TE5 22/3073.3%177 35.41
CLE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB33

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Deshaun Watson595/148 64.2%1010202 7 / 26.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins573 22131
Raheim Sanders59 434.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Denzel Boston WR15 16/2955.2%330 663
KC Concepcion WR25 18/2962.1%149 29.80
Harold Fannin Jr. TE5 18/2766.7%157 31.43

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

BAL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Lamar Jackson13192/302 63.6%2549196.1 21 / 78.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Derrick Henry17307 15955.216
Keaton Mitchell1359 3415.81

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Zay Flowers WR117 86/11872.9%1211 71.25
DeAndre Hopkins WR217 22/3956.4%330 19.42
Mark Andrews TE17 48/7068.6%422 24.85
CLE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB22

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Shedeur Sanders8120/212 56.6%1400175 7 / 106.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins14230 8273.67
Dylan Sampson1565 1752.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jerry Jeudy WR117 50/10647.2%602 35.42
Isaiah Bond WR215 18/4440.9%338 22.50
Harold Fannin Jr. TE16 72/10767.3%731 45.76

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Derrick Henry (BAL, 69%) and Quinshon Judkins (CLE, 40%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
BAL Leo’s chance
  1. Derrick Henry RB1 69% no TD
  2. Zay Flowers WR1 37% no TD
  3. Mark Andrews TE1 24% no TD
CLE Leo’s chance
  1. Quinshon Judkins RB1 40% no TD
  2. Denzel Boston WR1 32% no TD
  3. Harold Fannin Jr. TE1 28% no TD

Final result

BAL 10 – 13 CLE

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

BAL
Tyler Huntley QB 19/31165 yds1 TD0 INT
Derrick Henry RB 17 car58 yds0 TD1 rec, 2 yds
Zay Flowers WR 1 car1 yds0 TD6 rec, 66 yds
Zay Flowers WR 6/1166 yds0 TD
Josh Cuevas TE 4/544 yds1 TD
Ja'Kobi Lane WR 4/540 yds0 TD
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB 16/26164 yds0 TD0 INT
Jaleel McLaughlin RB 9 car41 yds0 TD4 rec, 14 yds
Audric Estimé RB 9 car19 yds1 TD
KC Concepcion WR 2 car2 yds0 TD4 rec, 37 yds
Jerry Jeudy WR 4/469 yds0 TD
KC Concepcion WR 4/637 yds0 TD
Denzel Boston WR 1/515 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerBAL 71%—CLE wonNO PICK
Total points46.639.523no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginBAL by 5.5BAL −3CLE by 3BAL −3 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Deshaun Watson CLE 204.5208 no side 164 44 Fewer attempts (26 vs 30.1 expected) NO LEAN
Tyler Huntley BAL 172.5176 no side 165 11 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Derrick Henry BAL 90.5106 OVER 58 48 Less efficient (3.4 vs 4.8 yds/carry) WRONG
Jaleel McLaughlin CLE —9 no side 41 32 More carries (9 vs 1.6 expected)
Justice Hill BAL 12.518 OVER 0 18 WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Denzel Boston CLE 51.568 OVER 15 53 Less efficient (3 vs 10.5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Rashod Bateman BAL 19.547 OVER 0 47 Fewer targets (1 vs 3.6 expected) WRONG
Zay Flowers BAL 60.595 OVER 66 29 Less efficient (6 vs 11.6 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL 9.516 OVER 40 24 More efficient (8 vs 3.7 yds/tgt) RIGHT
KC Concepcion CLE 40.534 UNDER 37 3 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.