Week 6 · Sunday 13:00

TENTEN at INDIND

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · Division game

TEN moneyline+240
IND moneyline-298
SpreadIND -6.5
Total43.5

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 12:11 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceIND 71%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43points, both teams
Leo marginIND by 11.3expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Daniel Jones IND QB1 6.434.115 206
Cam Ward TEN QB1 5.831.715 176

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jonathan Taylor IND RB1 4.619.915 93
Tony Pollard TEN RB1 4.413.815 62
Seth McGowan IND RB2 4.33.415 16
Nicholas Singleton TEN RB2 4.22.812 13

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Carnell Tate TEN WR1 6.57.615 53
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR2 6.27.215 48
Josh Downs IND WR2 6.66.315 44
Elic Ayomanor TEN WR3 10.43.615 41
Keenan Allen IND WR1 5714 38
Laquon Treadwell IND WR3 7.82.315 21
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

TEN Game status

2 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Jordan ElliottDT Not injury related - personal matter
  • Out Kevin Winston Jr.S Quadricep
  • Questionable Tyjae SpearsRB Knee
  • Questionable Joshua WilliamsCB Pectoral
IND Game status

2 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Ashton DulinWR Hamstring
  • Out Jaylon CarliesLB Ribs
  • Questionable Tyler WarrenTE Groin

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

TEN This season IND
32 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 41
32 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 50
37 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 40
35 Overall 45
QB 31 · OFF 32 · DEF 37 Last season QB 54 · OFF 59 · DEF 49

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

TEN Per game, this season IND
0.60Interceptions thrown0.80
0.40Interceptions caught0.20
0.40Fumbles lost0.80
0.20Fumbles forced0.60
0.60Takeaways0.80
1.00Giveaways1.60
-0.4Net turnover margin-0.8

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

TEN Offense IND
-0.197EPA per dropback-0.036
-0.6Completion % over expected-1.1
1.7%Interception rate2.4%
7.3%Sack rate taken4.9%
-0.067Rush EPA per carry+0.088
4.7%Explosive play rate5.3%
TEN Defense IND
+0.073EPA allowed per play+0.051
5.72Yards allowed per play6.06
3.6%Sack rate3.4%
0.6%Interception rate forced0.7%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is TEN, right is IND.

TEN This season IND
5Games5
179.2Pass yards/g204.2
82.6Rush yards/g100.8
3Passing TD3
3Interceptions thrown4
228.6Pass yards allowed/g268
114Rush yards allowed/g130.2
2Interceptions forced1
TEN Last season IND
190.6Pass yards/g240.3
93.5Rush yards/g118.1
15Passing TD25
8Interceptions thrown14
248.3Pass yards allowed/g262.5
114.6Rush yards allowed/g101.9

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

TEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB32

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward598/155 63.2%896179.2 3 / 35.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard568 27341
Tyjae Spears517 653.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Carnell Tate WR15 23/3762.2%274 54.80
Wan'Dale Robinson WR25 22/3073.3%176 35.22
Gunnar Helm TE5 9/1369.2%60 120
IND 2026

Quarterback Leo QB41

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones5108/176 61.4%1021204.2 3 / 45.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor5101 3983.96
Seth McGowan517 613.60

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Josh Downs WR15 20/3458.8%249 49.80
Keenan Allen WR24 18/2962.1%145 36.31
Tyler Warren TE5 30/3683.3%213 42.62

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

TEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cam Ward17323/540 59.8%3169186.4 15 / 75.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tony Pollard17242 10824.55
Tyjae Spears1372 2833.92

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Elic Ayomanor WR116 41/8946.1%515 32.24
Chimere Dike WR217 48/7464.9%423 24.94
Chig Okonkwo TE17 56/7970.9%560 32.92
IND 2025

Quarterback Leo QB54

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones13261/384 68%3101238.5 19 / 88.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor17323 15854.918
DJ Giddens526 963.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Pittman WR117 80/11172.1%784 46.17
Josh Downs WR216 58/8865.9%566 35.44
Tyler Warren TE17 76/11267.9%817 48.14

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jonathan Taylor (IND, 70%) and Keenan Allen (IND, 37%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
TEN Leo’s chance
  1. Tony Pollard RB1 30% no TD
  2. Carnell Tate WR1 25% scored
  3. Wan'Dale Robinson WR2 21% no TD
IND Leo’s chance
  1. Jonathan Taylor RB1 70% scored
  2. Keenan Allen WR1 37% no TD
  3. Tyler Warren TE1 36% no TD

Final result

TEN 26 – 20 IND

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

TEN
Cam Ward QB 11/22102 yds1 TD1 INT
Tony Pollard RB 19 car76 yds0 TD
Tyjae Spears RB 1 car1 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
Carnell Tate WR 6/770 yds1 TD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR 3/722 yds0 TD
Tyjae Spears RB 1/17 yds0 TD
IND
Daniel Jones QB 22/42269 yds1 TD2 INT
Jonathan Taylor RB 21 car94 yds1 TD2 rec, 57 yds
Seth McGowan RB 4 car27 yds0 TD
Josh Downs WR 1 car7 yds0 TD4 rec, 40 yds
Keenan Allen WR 8/1182 yds0 TD
Jonathan Taylor RB 2/457 yds0 TD
Deion Burks WR 2/241 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerIND 71%—TEN wonNO PICK
Total points4343.546no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginIND by 11.3IND −6.5TEN by 6IND −6.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Cam Ward TEN 202.5176 UNDER 102 74 Fewer attempts (22 vs 31.7 expected) RIGHT
Daniel Jones IND 224.5206 UNDER 269 63 More attempts (42 vs 34.1 expected) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tony Pollard TEN 57.562 OVER 76 14 More carries (19 vs 13.8 expected) RIGHT
Seth McGowan IND 14.516 OVER 27 11 More efficient (6.8 vs 4.3 yds/carry) RIGHT
Jonathan Taylor IND 89.593 no side 94 1 On target NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Keenan Allen IND 47.538 UNDER 82 44 More efficient (7.5 vs 5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Elic Ayomanor TEN 14.541 OVER 3 38 Less efficient (1.5 vs 10.4 yds/tgt) WRONG
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN 39.548 OVER 22 26 Less efficient (3.1 vs 6.2 yds/tgt) WRONG
Carnell Tate TEN 48.553 OVER 70 17 More efficient (10 vs 6.5 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Josh Downs IND 55.544 UNDER 40 4 On target RIGHT
Laquon Treadwell IND 29.521 UNDER 21 0 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.