Week 6 · Sunday 13:00

NYJNYJ at NENE

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · Division game

NYJ moneyline+275
NE moneyline-345
SpreadNE -7.5
Total43.5

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 12:11 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceNE 74%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44points, both teams
Leo marginNE by 11expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Drake Maye NE QB1 8.429.815 232
Geno Smith NYJ QB1 7.229.515 205

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
TreVeyon Henderson NE RB2 4.810.51.14 59
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB1 4.1111.15 53
Braelon Allen NYJ RB1 4.310.30.95 41
Isaiah Davis NYJ RB2 4.610.94 6

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR1 7.88.815 72
A.J. Brown NE WR3 7.77.411 58
Romeo Doubs NE WR1 8.74.915 44
DeMario Douglas NE WR2 8.83.815 36
Isaiah Williams NYJ WR3 10.52.715 32
Tim Patrick NYJ WR2 8.41.911 19
Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

NYJ Game status

4 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Breece HallRB Quadricep
  • Out Adonai MitchellWR Finger
  • Out Dylan ParhamG Knee
  • Out Joseph OssaiDE Ankle
  • Questionable Omar Cooper Jr.WR Ankle
  • Questionable Kenyon SadiqTE Concussion
  • Questionable Dane BeltonS Knee
NE Game status

2 out · 7 questionable

  • Out Carlton Davis IIICB Neck
  • Out Karon PruntyCB Hamstring
  • Questionable TreVeyon HendersonRB Ankle
  • Questionable A.J. BrownWR Ankle
  • Questionable Marcus BryantT Ankle
  • Questionable Will CampbellT Knee
  • Questionable Christian EllissLB Chest
  • Questionable Channing CanadaCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Craig WoodsonS Shoulder

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

NYJ This season NE
43 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 61
40 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 57
47 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 55
43 Overall 56
QB 28 · OFF 31 · DEF 29 Last season QB 68 · OFF 63 · DEF 60

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NYJ Per game, this season NE
0.00Interceptions thrown1.40
0.20Interceptions caught0.60
0.60Fumbles lost0.80
1.40Fumbles forced1.00
1.60Takeaways1.60
0.60Giveaways2.20
+1Net turnover margin-0.6

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NYJ Offense NE
-0.051EPA per dropback+0.146
+0.6Completion % over expected+7.4
1.2%Interception rate3.3%
10.3%Sack rate taken8.1%
-0.111Rush EPA per carry-0.026
4.6%Explosive play rate7.3%
NYJ Defense NE
+0.017EPA allowed per play-0.027
5.31Yards allowed per play5.32
4.0%Sack rate3.8%
0.2%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NYJ, right is NE.

NYJ This season NE
5Games5
216.8Pass yards/g254.8
94Rush yards/g127.2
6Passing TD8
0Interceptions thrown7
195.4Pass yards allowed/g222.6
118Rush yards allowed/g90.8
1Interceptions forced3
NYJ Last season NE
163.8Pass yards/g251.8
123.3Rush yards/g126.8
15Passing TD37
13Interceptions thrown12
226.4Pass yards allowed/g200.9
139.5Rush yards allowed/g99.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

NYJ 2026

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith5102/147 69.4%1084216.8 6 / 07.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Braelon Allen557 2364.12
Breece Hall351 1633.21

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR15 31/4273.8%374 74.83
Adonai Mitchell WR22 9/1560%123 61.50
Kenyon Sadiq TE5 14/2166.7%146 29.21
NE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB61

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye599/151 65.6%1228245.6 8 / 78.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rhamondre Stevenson557 22742
TreVeyon Henderson442 1633.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Romeo Doubs WR15 13/2356.5%219 43.82
DeMario Douglas WR25 13/2259.1%147 29.42
Hunter Henry TE5 15/1978.9%177 35.41

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NYJ 2025

Quarterback Leo QB28

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Fields9128/204 62.7%1259139.9 7 / 16.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall16243 10654.44
Isaiah Davis1643 2365.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR17 36/5961%395 56.44
Adonai Mitchell WR28 24/5841.4%301 37.62
Mason Taylor TE13 44/6567.7%369 28.41
NE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye21424/612 69.3%5222248.7 37 / 128.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
TreVeyon Henderson21210 9874.79
Rhamondre Stevenson18188 8204.47

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR121 99/12281.1%1123 53.55
Mack Hollins WR216 52/7569.3%679 42.43
Hunter Henry TE21 69/10267.6%880 41.98

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE, 41%) and Romeo Doubs (NE, 34%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NYJ Leo’s chance
  1. Garrett Wilson WR1 33% no TD
  2. Braelon Allen RB1 24% no TD
  3. Kenyon Sadiq TE1 17% no TD
NE Leo’s chance
  1. Rhamondre Stevenson RB1 41% no TD
  2. Romeo Doubs WR1 34% scored
  3. TreVeyon Henderson RB2 28% no TD

Final result

NYJ 19 – 26 NE

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

NYJ
Geno Smith QB 20/30252 yds1 TD1 INT
Braelon Allen RB 17 car78 yds0 TD2 rec, 26 yds
Isaiah Davis RB 7 car16 yds0 TD1 rec, 10 yds
Isaiah Williams WR 1 car4 yds0 TD
Omar Cooper Jr. WR 6/7103 yds1 TD
Garrett Wilson WR 4/644 yds0 TD
Mason Taylor TE 4/633 yds0 TD
NE
Drake Maye QB 18/32235 yds3 TD0 INT
Rhamondre Stevenson RB 14 car36 yds0 TD
Corey Kiner RB 11 car57 yds0 TD
TreVeyon Henderson RB 7 car31 yds0 TD1 rec, 9 yds
DeMario Douglas WR 7/886 yds1 TD
Hunter Henry TE 4/548 yds1 TD
Romeo Doubs WR 1/142 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerNE 74%—NE wonNO PICK
Total points4443.545no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginNE by 11NE −7.5NE by 7NE −7.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Geno Smith NYJ 210.5205 no side 252 47 More efficient (8.4 vs 7.2 yds/att) NO LEAN
Drake Maye NE 238.5232 no side 235 3 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Braelon Allen NYJ 65.541 UNDER 78 37 More carries (17 vs 10.3 expected) WRONG
TreVeyon Henderson NE 30.559 OVER 31 28 Fewer carries (7 vs 10.5 expected) RIGHT
Rhamondre Stevenson NE 54.553 no side 36 17 Less efficient (2.6 vs 4.1 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Isaiah Davis NYJ 5.56 OVER 16 10 More carries (7 vs 1 expected) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
DeMario Douglas NE 21.536 OVER 86 50 More targets (8 vs 3.8 expected) RIGHT
Isaiah Williams NYJ —32 no side 0 32
A.J. Brown NE 52.558 OVER 27 31 Less efficient (2.7 vs 7.7 yds/tgt) WRONG
Garrett Wilson NYJ 72.572 no side 44 28 Fewer targets (6 vs 8.8 expected) NO LEAN
Tim Patrick NYJ 16.519 OVER 15 4 On target WRONG
Romeo Doubs NE 28.544 OVER 42 2 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.