Week 6 · Sunday 16:25

LACLAC at KCKC

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · Division game

LAC moneyline+350
KC moneyline-455
SpreadKC -7.5
Total41.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 4:24 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceKC 79%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.5points, both teams
Leo marginKC by 12.8expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Patrick Mahomes KC QB1 7.833.30.94 218
Justin Herbert LAC QB1 6.829.615 199

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Kenneth Walker III KC RB1 4.9191.14 104
Omarion Hampton LAC RB1 4.214.40.95 59
Keaton Mitchell LAC RB2 4.36.10.95 26
Emmett Johnson KC RB2 4.23.81.14 19

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Quentin Johnston LAC WR1 9.15.214 53
Ladd McConkey LAC WR2 8.4514 47
Xavier Worthy KC WR1 7.35.40.94 38
Brenen Thompson LAC WR3 4.33.411 19
Jalen Royals KC WR2 3.31.40.94 8
Cyrus Allen KC WR3 01.20.92 4
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

LAC Game status

5 out · 1 doubtful · 6 questionable

  • Out Tre HarrisWR Hamstring
  • Out Joe AltT Neck
  • Out Kayode AwosikaG Fibula
  • Out Donte JacksonCB Hamstring
  • Out Derwin JamesS Hamstring
  • Doubtful Rodney ShelleyCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Brenen ThompsonWR Quadricep
  • Questionable KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR Hamstring
  • Questionable Bud DupreeDE Neck / Not injury related - resting player
  • Questionable Dalvin TomlinsonDT Hamstring
  • Questionable Jamaree CaldwellDT Knee
  • Questionable Daiyan HenleyLB Knee
KC Game status

2 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Rashee RiceWR Hamstring / Knee
  • Out Josh SimmonsT Back
  • Questionable L'Jarius SneedCB Knee

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

LAC This season KC
29 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 56
32 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 63
64 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 53
48 Overall 58
QB 43 · OFF 45 · DEF 66 Last season QB 48 · OFF 54 · DEF 51

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LAC Per game, this season KC
1.40Interceptions thrown0.50
0.80Interceptions caught1.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.00
1.60Fumbles forced0.75
2.40Takeaways1.75
2.40Giveaways0.50
0Net turnover margin+1.25

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LAC Offense KC
-0.133EPA per dropback+0.116
-2.5Completion % over expected-0.2
3.7%Interception rate1.8%
10.3%Sack rate taken6.0%
-0.108Rush EPA per carry+0.063
5.0%Explosive play rate6.4%
LAC Defense KC
-0.076EPA allowed per play-0.038
5.28Yards allowed per play5.19
4.1%Sack rate2.3%
1.6%Interception rate forced1.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LAC, right is KC.

LAC This season KC
5Games4
187.4Pass yards/g259.3
128.2Rush yards/g162.3
5Passing TD9
7Interceptions thrown2
205Pass yards allowed/g229
118.6Rush yards allowed/g92.8
4Interceptions forced4
LAC Last season KC
228.4Pass yards/g232.2
119.7Rush yards/g106.6
26Passing TD23
14Interceptions thrown12
199Pass yards allowed/g205.1
107.6Rush yards allowed/g105.7

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

LAC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB29

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert585/143 59.4%937187.4 5 / 76.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Omarion Hampton573 2713.73
Keaton Mitchell533 1354.10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Harris WR15 15/2560%225 450
Quentin Johnston WR24 7/1936.8%108 270
Oronde Gadsden II TE5 9/1656.3%86 17.21
KC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB56

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes482/128 64.1%1037259.3 9 / 28.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III487 5376.24
Emmett Johnson416 563.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Worthy WR14 14/2263.6%133 33.31
Rashee Rice WR23 13/1776.5%190 63.31
Travis Kelce TE4 16/2272.7%246 61.52

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LAC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Herbert17359/543 66.1%3886228.6 26 / 137.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kimani Vidal14166 6744.13
Omarion Hampton10125 5444.44

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Keenan Allen WR118 84/13064.6%802 44.64
Ladd McConkey WR217 69/11062.7%821 48.36
Oronde Gadsden II TE16 52/7272.2%694 43.43
KC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes14315/502 62.7%3587256.2 22 / 117.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kareem Hunt17163 6113.78
Isiah Pacheco13118 4623.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rashee Rice WR18 53/7867.9%571 71.45
Marquise Brown WR216 49/7466.2%587 36.75
Travis Kelce TE17 76/10870.4%851 50.15

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Kenneth Walker III (KC, 63%) and Omarion Hampton (LAC, 36%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LAC Leo’s chance
  1. Omarion Hampton RB1 36% no TD
  2. Quentin Johnston WR1 24% no TD
  3. Ladd McConkey WR2 18% no TD
KC Leo’s chance
  1. Kenneth Walker III RB1 63% scored 2
  2. Xavier Worthy WR1 31% no TD
  3. Travis Kelce TE1 30% no TD

Final result

LAC 6 – 22 KC

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

LAC
Justin Herbert QB 22/37204 yds0 TD1 INT
Kimani Vidal RB 7 car21 yds0 TD3 rec, 19 yds
Omarion Hampton RB 7 car18 yds0 TD4 rec, 21 yds
Keaton Mitchell RB 2 car4 yds0 TD
Quentin Johnston WR 1/357 yds0 TD
KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR 5/932 yds0 TD
Theo Wease Jr. WR 2/321 yds0 TD
KC
Patrick Mahomes QB 23/30272 yds0 TD1 INT
Kenneth Walker III RB 19 car128 yds2 TD2 rec, 11 yds
Emmett Johnson RB 3 car6 yds0 TD2 rec, 18 yds
Xavier Worthy WR 7/773 yds0 TD
Travis Kelce TE 4/553 yds0 TD
Noah Gray TE 3/353 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerKC 79%—KC wonNO PICK
Total points42.541.528no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginKC by 12.8KC −7.5KC by 16KC −7.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Patrick Mahomes KC 223.5218 no side 272 54 More efficient (9.1 vs 7.8 yds/att) NO LEAN
Justin Herbert LAC 196.5199 no side 204 5 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Omarion Hampton LAC 34.559 OVER 18 41 Fewer carries (7 vs 14.4 expected) WRONG
Kenneth Walker III KC 94.5104 OVER 128 24 More efficient (6.7 vs 4.9 yds/carry) RIGHT
Keaton Mitchell LAC 18.526 OVER 4 22 Fewer carries (2 vs 6.1 expected) WRONG
Emmett Johnson KC 13.519 OVER 6 13 Less efficient (2 vs 4.2 yds/carry) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Xavier Worthy KC 48.538 UNDER 73 35 More efficient (10.4 vs 7.3 yds/tgt) WRONG
Ladd McConkey LAC 42.547 OVER 17 30 Fewer targets (1 vs 5 expected) WRONG
Cyrus Allen KC —4 no side 27 23 More efficient (13.5 vs 0 yds/tgt)
Jalen Royals KC 24.58 UNDER 24 16 More efficient (6 vs 3.3 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Quentin Johnston LAC 36.553 OVER 57 4 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.