Week 4 · Sunday 16:25

KCKC at LVLV

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass · Division game

KC moneyline-225
LV moneyline+185
SpreadKC -4.5
Total47.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 2:11 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceKC 67%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total44.6points, both teams
Leo marginKC by 3.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Patrick Mahomes KC QB1 7.833.913 253
Kirk Cousins LV QB1 730.80.93 188

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Kenneth Walker III KC RB1 4.818.213 89
Ashton Jeanty LV RB1 3.818.813 69
Emmett Johnson KC RB2 4.2513 23
Mike Washington Jr. LV RB2 4.84.413 21

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Rashee Rice KC WR1 10.17.413 77
Tre Tucker LV WR1 10.65.20.93 54
Xavier Worthy KC WR2 5.95.113 33
Tyquan Thornton KC WR3 10.72.613 31
Jalen Nailor LV WR2 5.13.50.93 20
Cody White LV WR3 5.21.30.93 10
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

KC Game status

1 out

  • Out Josh SimmonsT Back
LV Game status

1 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Jackson Powers-JohnsonG Groin
  • Questionable Aidan O'ConnellQB Not injury related - personal matter

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

KC This season LV
56 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 45
61 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 33
56 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 60
58 Overall 47
QB 48 · OFF 54 · DEF 51 Last season QB 31 · OFF 21 · DEF 47

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

KC Per game, this season LV
0.67Interceptions thrown1.00
1.00Interceptions caught1.33
0.00Fumbles lost0.00
0.67Fumbles forced3.33
1.67Takeaways4.67
0.67Giveaways1.00
+1Net turnover margin+3.67

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

KC Offense LV
+0.124EPA per dropback-0.038
+0.8Completion % over expected+1.3
2.0%Interception rate3.5%
5.9%Sack rate taken8.5%
+0.043Rush EPA per carry-0.256
5.8%Explosive play rate4.3%
KC Defense LV
-0.055EPA allowed per play-0.054
5.1Yards allowed per play5.37
2.6%Sack rate4.2%
1.3%Interception rate forced1.4%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is KC, right is LV.

KC This season LV
3Games3
270.7Pass yards/g220.3
153.3Rush yards/g100
7Passing TD9
2Interceptions thrown3
183.7Pass yards allowed/g222.3
99.7Rush yards allowed/g116.3
3Interceptions forced4
KC Last season LV
232.2Pass yards/g195
106.6Rush yards/g77.5
23Passing TD20
12Interceptions thrown19
205.1Pass yards allowed/g214.4
105.7Rush yards allowed/g116.8

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

KC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB56

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes367/98 68.4%812270.7 7 / 28.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III365 3605.52
Emmett Johnson316 563.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rashee Rice WR13 13/1776.5%190 63.31
Xavier Worthy WR23 10/1566.7%63 211
Travis Kelce TE3 14/1877.8%231 772
LV 2026

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Kirk Cousins362/92 67.4%661220.3 9 / 37.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty363 2063.30
Mike Washington Jr.315 1026.81

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR13 11/1573.3%189 631
Jalen Nailor WR23 5/1145.5%52 17.30
Michael Mayer TE3 12/1485.7%87 291

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

KC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes14315/502 62.7%3587256.2 22 / 117.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kareem Hunt17163 6113.78
Isiah Pacheco13118 4623.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rashee Rice WR18 53/7867.9%571 71.45
Marquise Brown WR216 49/7466.2%587 36.75
Travis Kelce TE17 76/10870.4%851 50.15
LV 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith15302/448 67.4%3025201.7 19 / 176.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty17266 9753.75
Raheem Mostert1222 1044.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR117 57/9262%696 40.95
Jakobi Meyers WR27 33/4967.3%352 50.30
Brock Bowers TE12 64/8674.4%680 56.77

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Cody White (LV, 39%) and Kenneth Walker III (KC, 38%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
KC Leo’s chance
  1. Kenneth Walker III RB1 38% scored 2
  2. Rashee Rice WR1 34% no TD
  3. Emmett Johnson RB2 20% no TD
LV Leo’s chance
  1. Cody White WR3 39% no TD
  2. Mike Washington Jr. RB2 29% no TD
  3. Tre Tucker WR1 25% no TD

Final result

KC 30 – 27 LV

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

KC
Patrick Mahomes QB 15/30225 yds2 TD0 INT
Kenneth Walker III RB 22 car177 yds2 TD1 rec, 2 yds
Khyiris Tonga DT 1 car0 yds0 TD
Matt Araiza P 1 car12 yds0 TD
Tyquan Thornton WR 5/8111 yds2 TD
Xavier Worthy WR 4/770 yds0 TD
Noah Gray TE 2/317 yds0 TD
LV
Kirk Cousins QB 31/52365 yds2 TD1 INT
Ashton Jeanty RB 15 car58 yds0 TD6 rec, 68 yds
Mike Washington Jr. RB 9 car18 yds0 TD1 rec, -1 yds
Connor Heyward FB 2 car-4 yds0 TD1 rec, 9 yds
Brock Bowers TE 6/1186 yds1 TD
Michael Mayer TE 8/1082 yds0 TD
Ashton Jeanty RB 6/868 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerKC 67%—KC wonRIGHT
Total points44.647.557UNDER · WRONG
MarginKC by 3.6KC −4.5KC by 3no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kirk Cousins LV 224.5188 UNDER 365 177 More attempts (52 vs 30.8 expected) WRONG
Patrick Mahomes KC 238.5253 OVER 225 28 Fewer attempts (30 vs 33.9 expected) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kenneth Walker III KC 86.589 no side 177 88 More efficient (8 vs 4.8 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Emmett Johnson KC 15.523 OVER 0 23 WRONG
Ashton Jeanty LV 58.569 OVER 58 11 Fewer carries (15 vs 18.8 expected) WRONG
Mike Washington Jr. LV 16.521 OVER 18 3 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyquan Thornton KC 21.531 OVER 111 80 More targets (8 vs 2.6 expected) RIGHT
Xavier Worthy KC 33.533 no side 70 37 More efficient (10 vs 5.9 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Cody White LV 10.510 no side 36 26 More efficient (9 vs 5.2 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Tre Tucker LV 38.554 OVER 44 10 Less efficient (5.5 vs 10.6 yds/tgt) RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.