Week 5 · Sunday 13:00

CLECLE at NYJNYJ

MetLife Stadium · outdoors

CLE moneyline+120
NYJ moneyline-142
SpreadNYJ -2.5
Total38.5

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCLE 51%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.9points, both teams
Leo marginNYJ by 1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Geno Smith NYJ QB1 7.429.514 220
Deshaun Watson CLE QB1 7.329.714 202

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Quinshon Judkins CLE RB1 3.7151.14 62
Braelon Allen NYJ RB1 4.27.614 33
Raheim Sanders CLE RB2 4.22.51.14 13

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Denzel Boston CLE WR2 12.45.714 72
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR1 7.68.414 70
KC Concepcion CLE WR1 57.214 38
Isaiah Williams NYJ WR2 10.42.814 34
Jerry Jeudy CLE WR3 6.14.413 29
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

CLE Game status

7 out

  • Out Dillon GabrielQB Back
  • Out Tylan WallaceWR Knee
  • Out Carsen RyanTE Calf
  • Out Teven JenkinsG Back
  • Out Kalia DavisDT Quadricep
  • Out Mason GrahamDT Knee / Ankle
  • Out Mike Hall Jr.DT Ankle
NYJ Game status

4 out · 3 questionable

  • Out Breece HallRB Quadricep
  • Out Adonai MitchellWR Finger
  • Out Dylan ParhamG Knee
  • Out Francisco MauigoaLB Quadricep
  • Questionable Tim PatrickWR Groin
  • Questionable Kingsley EnagbareDE Knee
  • Questionable Will McDonald IVDE Calf

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CLE This season NYJ
38 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 46
36 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 42
60 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 39
48 Overall 40
QB 22 · OFF 24 · DEF 64 Last season QB 28 · OFF 31 · DEF 29

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CLE Per game, this season NYJ
0.50Interceptions thrown0.00
1.00Interceptions caught0.25
0.50Fumbles lost0.25
0.50Fumbles forced1.50
1.50Takeaways1.75
1.00Giveaways0.25
+0.5Net turnover margin+1.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CLE Offense NYJ
-0.071EPA per dropback-0.013
-2.2Completion % over expected+1.8
2.5%Interception rate1.3%
8.5%Sack rate taken10.1%
-0.104Rush EPA per carry-0.127
4.6%Explosive play rate4.6%
CLE Defense NYJ
-0.039EPA allowed per play+0.057
5.43Yards allowed per play5.49
5.0%Sack rate3.0%
1.3%Interception rate forced0.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CLE, right is NYJ.

CLE This season NYJ
4Games4
213.8Pass yards/g225.5
93.8Rush yards/g84
6Passing TD5
2Interceptions thrown0
254.3Pass yards allowed/g205.5
113.3Rush yards allowed/g123.5
4Interceptions forced1
CLE Last season NYJ
185.4Pass yards/g163.8
97Rush yards/g123.3
16Passing TD15
18Interceptions thrown13
189.4Pass yards allowed/g226.4
116.4Rush yards allowed/g139.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CLE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB38

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Deshaun Watson480/115 69.6%855213.8 6 / 27.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins459 17731
Raheim Sanders46 315.20

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
KC Concepcion WR14 17/2860.7%144 360
Denzel Boston WR24 13/2259.1%284 712
Harold Fannin Jr. TE4 17/2373.9%153 38.33
NYJ 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith485/117 72.6%902225.5 5 / 07.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall351 1633.21
Braelon Allen433 1203.61

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR14 24/3177.4%270 67.52
Adonai Mitchell WR22 9/1560%123 61.50
Kenyon Sadiq TE4 12/1866.7%143 35.81

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CLE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB22

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Shedeur Sanders8120/212 56.6%1400175 7 / 106.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins14230 8273.67
Dylan Sampson1565 1752.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jerry Jeudy WR117 50/10647.2%602 35.42
Isaiah Bond WR215 18/4440.9%338 22.50
Harold Fannin Jr. TE16 72/10767.3%731 45.76
NYJ 2025

Quarterback Leo QB28

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Fields9128/204 62.7%1259139.9 7 / 16.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall16243 10654.44
Isaiah Davis1643 2365.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR17 36/5961%395 56.44
Adonai Mitchell WR28 24/5841.4%301 37.62
Mason Taylor TE13 44/6567.7%369 28.41

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Garrett Wilson (NYJ, 39%) and Quinshon Judkins (CLE, 33%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CLE Leo’s chance
  1. Quinshon Judkins RB1 33% no TD
  2. Denzel Boston WR2 32% scored
  3. Raheim Sanders RB2 17% no TD
NYJ Leo’s chance
  1. Garrett Wilson WR1 39% scored
  2. Braelon Allen RB1 25% scored
  3. Isaiah Williams WR2 16% no TD

Final result

CLE 12 – 17 NYJ

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

CLE
Deshaun Watson QB 15/33155 yds1 TD0 INT
Quinshon Judkins RB 14 car44 yds0 TD3 rec, 6 yds
Raheim Sanders RB 3 car12 yds0 TD1 rec, 1 yds
Corey Bojorquez P 1 car0 yds0 TD
Isaiah Bond WR 3/774 yds0 TD
Denzel Boston WR 3/746 yds1 TD
Jerry Jeudy WR 3/719 yds0 TD
NYJ
Geno Smith QB 17/30182 yds1 TD0 INT
Braelon Allen RB 24 car116 yds1 TD1 rec, 0 yds
Isaiah Davis RB 2 car8 yds0 TD1 rec, 9 yds
Isaiah Williams WR 1 car3 yds0 TD1 rec, 16 yds
Garrett Wilson WR 7/11104 yds1 TD
Tim Patrick WR 2/326 yds0 TD
Mason Taylor TE 3/324 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCLE 51%—NYJ wonNO PICK
Total points42.938.529OVER · WRONG
MarginNYJ by 1NYJ −2.5NYJ by 5CLE +2.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Deshaun Watson CLE 191.5202 OVER 155 47 Less efficient (4.7 vs 7.3 yds/att) WRONG
Geno Smith NYJ 198.5220 OVER 182 38 Less efficient (6.1 vs 7.4 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Braelon Allen NYJ 71.533 UNDER 116 83 More carries (24 vs 7.6 expected) WRONG
Quinshon Judkins CLE 59.562 no side 44 18 Less efficient (3.1 vs 3.7 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Raheim Sanders CLE —13 no side 12 1 On target

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Garrett Wilson NYJ 68.570 no side 104 34 More efficient (9.5 vs 7.6 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
KC Concepcion CLE 40.538 UNDER 5 33 Fewer targets (1 vs 7.2 expected) RIGHT
Denzel Boston CLE 47.572 OVER 46 26 Less efficient (6.6 vs 12.4 yds/tgt) WRONG
Isaiah Williams NYJ 22.534 OVER 16 18 Fewer targets (2 vs 2.8 expected) WRONG
Jerry Jeudy CLE —29 no side 19 10 Less efficient (2.7 vs 6.1 yds/tgt)

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.