Week 4 · Sunday 13:00

ARIARI at NYGNYG

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

ARI moneyline-135
NYG moneyline+114
SpreadARI -2.5
Total44.5

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 8:16 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceARI 53%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45points, both teams
Leo marginNYG by 4.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB1 6.139.513 233
Jameis Winston NYG QB1 62812 166

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Cam Skattebo NYG RB1 4.115.71.13 70
Jeremiyah Love ARI RB1 4.212.713 54
Najee Harris NYG RB2 4.36.71.12 32
Tyler Allgeier ARI RB2 3.87.413 29

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Michael Wilson ARI WR1 5.98.813 55
Darnell Mooney NYG WR3 113.713 45
Malik Nabers NYG WR1 4.87.413 40
Kendrick Bourne ARI WR2 7.64.413 37
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI WR3 6.94.813 36
Malachi Fields NYG WR2 6.94.213 33
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

ARI Game status

1 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Dadrion Taylor-DemersonS Back
  • Questionable Josh SweatLB Not injury related - resting player / Groin
NYG Practice report

No game statuses on file — latest practice report shown

  • Full Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB Knee
  • Full Patrick RicardFB Nose
  • Limited Andrew ThomasT Groin
  • DNP John Michael SchmitzC Not injury related - personal matter
  • Full Deonte BanksCB Calf
  • Full Nic JonesCB Shoulder
  • Full Elijah CampbellS Foot
  • Full Tyler NubinS Calf

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

ARI This season NYG
52 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 43
47 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 47
35 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 38
41 Overall 43
QB 50 · OFF 47 · DEF 39 Last season QB 47 · OFF 53 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

ARI Per game, this season NYG
0.33Interceptions thrown0.33
0.33Interceptions caught1.00
0.00Fumbles lost0.33
1.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.33Takeaways2.00
0.33Giveaways0.67
+1Net turnover margin+1.33

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

ARI Offense NYG
+0.042EPA per dropback-0.002
+2.2Completion % over expected-2.8
1.3%Interception rate1.6%
6.5%Sack rate taken8.1%
-0.064Rush EPA per carry-0.017
3.5%Explosive play rate4.0%
ARI Defense NYG
+0.095EPA allowed per play+0.083
6.16Yards allowed per play5.98
2.6%Sack rate2.3%
0.8%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is ARI, right is NYG.

ARI This season NYG
3Games3
217.3Pass yards/g159.7
93Rush yards/g118.3
4Passing TD3
1Interceptions thrown1
247Pass yards allowed/g227.7
127.7Rush yards allowed/g104.3
1Interceptions forced3
ARI Last season NYG
256.1Pass yards/g217.8
93.1Rush yards/g129.1
29Passing TD21
11Interceptions thrown10
242.8Pass yards allowed/g229.9
126.9Rush yards allowed/g145.3

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

ARI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett382/117 70.1%652217.3 4 / 15.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jeremiyah Love341 1603.91
Tyler Allgeier324 702.90

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR13 18/3158.1%163 54.31
Kendrick Bourne WR23 12/1485.7%108 360
Trey McBride TE3 26/3476.5%211 70.32
NYG 2026

Quarterback Leo QB43

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jameis Winston225/49 51%229114.5 0 / 14.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Cam Skattebo350 1773.51
Najee Harris213 584.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Malik Nabers WR13 12/1963.2%96 320
Malachi Fields WR23 6/1250%74 24.70
Isaiah Likely TE3 15/2365.2%124 41.32

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

ARI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB50

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett14315/485 64.9%3366240.4 23 / 86.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Michael Carter1392 3333.61
Bam Knight1282 2693.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR117 78/12661.9%1006 59.27
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR212 41/7356.2%608 50.74
Trey McBride TE17 126/16974.6%1239 72.911
NYG 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jaxson Dart14216/339 63.7%2272162.3 15 / 56.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.15176 7404.22
Devin Singletary17119 4373.75

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR116 92/14065.7%1014 63.44
Darius Slayton WR214 37/6358.7%538 38.41
Theo Johnson TE15 45/7460.8%528 35.25

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Cam Skattebo (NYG, 37%) and Michael Wilson (ARI, 30%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
ARI Leo’s chance
  1. Michael Wilson WR1 30% no TD
  2. Jeremiyah Love RB1 30% no TD
  3. Tyler Allgeier RB2 22% scored
NYG Leo’s chance
  1. Cam Skattebo RB1 37% no TD
  2. Malik Nabers WR1 20% scored
  3. Najee Harris RB2 16% no TD

Final result

ARI 24 – 36 NYG

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB 21/35166 yds2 TD3 INT
Jeremiyah Love RB 14 car63 yds0 TD1 rec, -8 yds
Tyler Allgeier RB 8 car42 yds1 TD2 rec, 7 yds
Michael Wilson WR 7/1395 yds0 TD
Trey McBride TE 7/1231 yds0 TD
Elijah Higgins TE 2/219 yds1 TD
NYG
Jameis Winston QB 18/29250 yds3 TD2 INT
Cam Skattebo RB 18 car58 yds0 TD1 rec, 8 yds
Najee Harris RB 9 car30 yds0 TD
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB 1 car-1 yds0 TD
Malik Nabers WR 6/7112 yds1 TD
Isaiah Likely TE 7/1266 yds0 TD
Malachi Fields WR 2/352 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerARI 53%—NYG wonNO PICK
Total points4544.560no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginNYG by 4.6ARI −2.5NYG by 12NYG +2.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jameis Winston NYG 208.5166 UNDER 250 84 More efficient (8.6 vs 6 yds/att) WRONG
Jacoby Brissett ARI 230.5233 no side 166 67 Less efficient (4.7 vs 6.1 yds/att) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyler Allgeier ARI 21.529 OVER 42 13 More efficient (5.3 vs 3.8 yds/carry) RIGHT
Cam Skattebo NYG 62.570 OVER 58 12 Less efficient (3.2 vs 4.1 yds/carry) WRONG
Jeremiyah Love ARI 66.554 UNDER 63 9 More carries (14 vs 12.7 expected) RIGHT
Najee Harris NYG 23.532 OVER 30 2 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Malik Nabers NYG 54.540 UNDER 112 72 More efficient (16 vs 4.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Darnell Mooney NYG 20.545 OVER 0 45 Less efficient (0 vs 11 yds/tgt) WRONG
Michael Wilson ARI 56.555 no side 95 40 More targets (13 vs 8.8 expected) NO LEAN
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 34.536 no side 12 24 Less efficient (3 vs 6.9 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Malachi Fields NYG 23.533 OVER 52 19 More efficient (17.3 vs 6.9 yds/tgt) RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.