Week 3 · Sunday 13:00

KCKC at MIAMIA

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass

KC moneyline-600
MIA moneyline+440
SpreadKC -10
Total45.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:07 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceKC 65%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45points, both teams
Leo marginKC by 9.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Patrick Mahomes KC QB1 7.436.412 260
Malik Willis MIA QB1 7.628.20.92 190

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Kenneth Walker III KC RB1 5.418.312 102
De'Von Achane MIA RB1 4.615.20.92 69
Emmett Johnson KC RB2 5.3512 30
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB2 2.23.60.91 11

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Rashee Rice KC WR2 9.57.212 67
Malik Washington MIA WR1 6.950.92 30
Xavier Worthy KC WR1 5.25.712 28
Tyquan Thornton KC WR3 10.62.712 27
Chris Bell MIA WR3 6.31.60.92 8
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA WR2 01.90.91 0
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

KC This season MIA
51 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 40
60 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 46
54 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 33
57 Overall 40
QB 48 · OFF 54 · DEF 51 Last season QB 47 · OFF 48 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

KC Per game, this season MIA
0.50Interceptions thrown0.50
1.00Interceptions caught1.00
0.00Fumbles lost0.50
0.50Fumbles forced0.00
1.50Takeaways1.00
0.50Giveaways1.00
+1Net turnover margin0

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

KC Offense MIA
+0.074EPA per dropback+0.001
-1.3Completion % over expected-1.9
1.8%Interception rate3.2%
6.7%Sack rate taken10.0%
+0.078Rush EPA per carry-0.069
5.5%Explosive play rate6.3%
KC Defense MIA
-0.036EPA allowed per play+0.106
5.13Yards allowed per play5.95
3.1%Sack rate2.5%
1.3%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is KC, right is MIA.

KC This season MIA
2Games2
283Pass yards/g208.5
186Rush yards/g88
5Passing TD1
1Interceptions thrown1
170.5Pass yards allowed/g223.5
90Rush yards allowed/g112.5
2Interceptions forced2
KC Last season MIA
232.2Pass yards/g195.4
106.6Rush yards/g120.2
23Passing TD23
12Interceptions thrown18
205.1Pass yards allowed/g230.6
105.7Rush yards allowed/g132.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

KC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes247/74 63.5%566283 5 / 17.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III247 2906.21
Emmett Johnson210 393.90

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Worthy WR12 8/1361.5%43 21.51
Rashee Rice WR22 6/875%102 511
Travis Kelce TE2 12/1675%172 861
MIA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB40

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Malik Willis229/50 58%417208.5 1 / 18.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
De'Von Achane231 1103.50
Jaylen Wright23 103.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Malik Washington WR12 7/1353.8%96 480
Caleb Douglas WR22 7/1070%113 56.50
Greg Dulcich TE2 4/580%35 17.50

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

KC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes14315/502 62.7%3587256.2 22 / 117.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kareem Hunt17163 6113.78
Isiah Pacheco13118 4623.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rashee Rice WR18 53/7867.9%571 71.45
Marquise Brown WR216 49/7466.2%587 36.75
Travis Kelce TE17 76/10870.4%851 50.15
MIA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tua Tagovailoa14260/384 67.7%2660190 20 / 156.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
De'Von Achane16238 13505.78
Ollie Gordon II1770 1992.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaylen Waddle WR116 64/10064%910 56.96
Malik Washington WR217 46/6570.8%317 18.63
Darren Waller TE9 24/3470.6%283 31.46

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Rashee Rice (KC, 39%) and Kenneth Walker III (KC, 31%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
KC Leo’s chance
  1. Rashee Rice WR2 39% no TD
  2. Kenneth Walker III RB1 31% scored 2
  3. Xavier Worthy WR1 23% no TD
MIA Leo’s chance
  1. De'Von Achane RB1 25% no TD
  2. Kevin Coleman Jr. WR2 20% no TD
  3. Chris Bell WR3 17% no TD

Final result

KC 24 – 10 MIA

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

KC
Patrick Mahomes QB 20/24246 yds2 TD1 INT
Kenneth Walker III RB 18 car70 yds1 TD2 rec, 3 yds
Emmett Johnson RB 6 car17 yds0 TD
Rashee Rice WR 7/988 yds0 TD
Travis Kelce TE 2/259 yds1 TD
Noah Gray TE 3/339 yds0 TD
MIA
Malik Willis QB 20/36210 yds0 TD1 INT
Ollie Gordon II RB 17 car41 yds1 TD3 rec, 14 yds
De'Von Achane RB 3 car17 yds0 TD
Malik Washington WR 2 car5 yds0 TD5 rec, 56 yds
Chris Bell WR 4/767 yds0 TD
Malik Washington WR 5/1056 yds0 TD
Greg Dulcich TE 5/755 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerKC 65%—KC wonRIGHT
Total points4545.534no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginKC by 9.9KC −10KC by 14no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Malik Willis MIA 176.5190 OVER 210 20 Less efficient (5.8 vs 7.6 yds/att) RIGHT
Patrick Mahomes KC 235.5260 OVER 246 14 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
De'Von Achane MIA 60.569 OVER 17 52 Fewer carries (3 vs 15.2 expected) WRONG
Kenneth Walker III KC 83.5102 OVER 70 32 Less efficient (3.9 vs 5.4 yds/carry) WRONG
Ollie Gordon II MIA 8.511 OVER 41 30 More carries (17 vs 3.6 expected) RIGHT
Emmett Johnson KC 29.530 no side 17 13 Less efficient (2.8 vs 5.3 yds/carry) NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Chris Bell MIA 19.58 UNDER 67 59 More targets (7 vs 1.6 expected) WRONG
Malik Washington MIA 38.530 UNDER 56 26 More targets (10 vs 5 expected) WRONG
Rashee Rice KC 49.567 OVER 88 21 More targets (9 vs 7.2 expected) RIGHT
Xavier Worthy KC 40.528 UNDER 20 8 On target RIGHT
Tyquan Thornton KC 19.527 OVER 22 5 On target RIGHT
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA 16.50 UNDER 3 3 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.