Week 5 · Sunday 13:00

LVLV at NENE

Gillette Stadium · outdoors

LV moneyline+150
NE moneyline-180
SpreadNE -3.5
Total45.5

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 5 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 4), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 11, 12:34 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceNE 64%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.8points, both teams
Leo marginNE by 4.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Kirk Cousins LV QB1 734.30.94 218
Drake Maye NE QB1 7.829.114 216

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
TreVeyon Henderson NE RB1 4.812.21.23 69
Ashton Jeanty LV RB1 3.818.114 68
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB2 4.110.61.24 51
Mike Washington Jr. LV RB2 4.55.514 25

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Romeo Doubs NE WR1 11.85.214 63
Tre Tucker LV WR1 9.95.60.94 56
DeMario Douglas NE WR2 7.13.614 29
Cody White LV WR2 6.91.60.94 14
Efton Chism III NE WR3 41.413 9
Malik Benson LV WR3 0.30.90.94 4
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Injury report

The official Week 5 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 12, 3:40 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

LV Game status

3 out · 1 questionable

  • Out Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR Hamstring
  • Out Jalen NailorWR Concussion
  • Out Trey Zuhn IIIC Knee
  • Questionable Ashton JeantyRB Ankle / Foot
NE Game status

6 out · 7 questionable

  • Out Mack HollinsWR Calf
  • Out Reggie GilliamFB Ankle / Knee
  • Out Carlton Davis IIICB Neck
  • Out Channing CanadaCB Hamstring
  • Out Christian GonzalezCB Shoulder
  • Out Karon PruntyCB Hamstring
  • Questionable Rhamondre StevensonRB Knee
  • Questionable Morgan MosesT Foot
  • Questionable Christian BarmoreDT Shoulder
  • Questionable Christian EllissLB Chest
  • Questionable Dre'Mont JonesLB Shoulder
  • Questionable Charles WoodsCB Shoulder
  • Questionable Craig WoodsonS Shoulder

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

LV This season NE
46 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 50
36 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 50
57 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 57
46 Overall 54
QB 31 · OFF 21 · DEF 47 Last season QB 68 · OFF 63 · DEF 60

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

LV Per game, this season NE
1.00Interceptions thrown1.75
1.00Interceptions caught0.75
0.00Fumbles lost0.75
2.50Fumbles forced0.75
3.50Takeaways1.50
1.00Giveaways2.50
+2.5Net turnover margin-1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

LV Offense NE
-0.009EPA per dropback+0.055
+0.4Completion % over expected+5.3
3.2%Interception rate3.8%
7.2%Sack rate taken8.7%
-0.254Rush EPA per carry-0.018
4.8%Explosive play rate6.9%
LV Defense NE
-0.032EPA allowed per play-0.040
5.58Yards allowed per play5.26
4.2%Sack rate3.7%
1.2%Interception rate forced1.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is LV, right is NE.

LV This season NE
4Games4
256.5Pass yards/g225
93Rush yards/g117.8
11Passing TD4
4Interceptions thrown7
223Pass yards allowed/g205.5
134.5Rush yards allowed/g104
4Interceptions forced3
LV Last season NE
195Pass yards/g251.8
77.5Rush yards/g126.8
20Passing TD37
19Interceptions thrown12
214.4Pass yards allowed/g200.9
116.8Rush yards allowed/g99.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

LV 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Kirk Cousins493/144 64.6%1026256.5 11 / 47.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty478 2643.40
Mike Washington Jr.424 12051

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR14 15/2365.2%233 58.31
Jalen Nailor WR23 5/1145.5%52 17.30
Michael Mayer TE4 20/2483.3%169 42.31
NE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB50

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye473/117 62.4%854213.5 4 / 77.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rhamondre Stevenson444 1633.71
TreVeyon Henderson338 1413.71

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Mack Hollins WR14 15/2075%209 52.30
Romeo Doubs WR24 12/2060%203 50.82
Hunter Henry TE4 12/1580%133 33.30

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

LV 2025

Quarterback Leo QB31

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith15302/448 67.4%3025201.7 19 / 176.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Ashton Jeanty17266 9753.75
Raheem Mostert1222 1044.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tre Tucker WR117 57/9262%696 40.95
Jakobi Meyers WR27 33/4967.3%352 50.30
Brock Bowers TE12 64/8674.4%680 56.77
NE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye21424/612 69.3%5222248.7 37 / 128.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
TreVeyon Henderson21210 9874.79
Rhamondre Stevenson18188 8204.47

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR121 99/12281.1%1123 53.55
Mack Hollins WR216 52/7569.3%679 42.43
Hunter Henry TE21 69/10267.6%880 41.98

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: TreVeyon Henderson (NE, 39%) and Cody White (LV, 36%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
LV Leo’s chance
  1. Cody White WR2 36% no TD
  2. Mike Washington Jr. RB2 26% no TD
  3. Tre Tucker WR1 23% no TD
NE Leo’s chance
  1. TreVeyon Henderson RB1 39% no TD
  2. Romeo Doubs WR1 34% no TD
  3. Rhamondre Stevenson RB2 34% scored

Final result

LV 17 – 45 NE

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

LV
Kirk Cousins QB 19/28243 yds1 TD0 INT
Ashton Jeanty RB 10 car27 yds0 TD3 rec, 50 yds
Dylan Laube RB 4 car9 yds1 TD3 rec, 16 yds
Tre Tucker WR 2 car-6 yds0 TD4 rec, 41 yds
Brock Bowers TE 8/10110 yds1 TD
Ashton Jeanty RB 3/650 yds0 TD
Cody White WR 2/444 yds0 TD
NE
Drake Maye QB 26/34374 yds4 TD0 INT
Rhamondre Stevenson RB 13 car64 yds1 TD3 rec, 21 yds
Corey Kiner RB 6 car52 yds0 TD1 rec, 7 yds
TreVeyon Henderson RB 4 car22 yds0 TD1 rec, 16 yds
Kyle Williams WR 3/391 yds1 TD
DeMario Douglas WR 4/565 yds2 TD
Efton Chism III WR 5/657 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerNE 64%—NE wonRIGHT
Total points42.845.562UNDER · WRONG
MarginNE by 4.6NE −3.5NE by 28NE −3.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Drake Maye NE 227.5216 UNDER 374 158 More efficient (11 vs 7.8 yds/att) WRONG
Kirk Cousins LV 236.5218 UNDER 243 25 More efficient (8.7 vs 7 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
TreVeyon Henderson NE 46.569 OVER 22 47 Fewer carries (4 vs 12.2 expected) WRONG
Ashton Jeanty LV 45.568 OVER 27 41 Fewer carries (10 vs 18.1 expected) WRONG
Mike Washington Jr. LV 31.525 UNDER 5 20 Fewer carries (1 vs 5.5 expected) RIGHT
Rhamondre Stevenson NE 37.551 OVER 64 13 More efficient (4.9 vs 4.1 yds/carry) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Efton Chism III NE 25.59 UNDER 57 48 More efficient (9.5 vs 4 yds/tgt) WRONG
Romeo Doubs NE 49.563 OVER 16 47 Fewer targets (3 vs 5.2 expected) WRONG
DeMario Douglas NE 25.529 OVER 65 36 More efficient (13 vs 7.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Cody White LV 22.514 UNDER 44 30 More targets (4 vs 1.6 expected) WRONG
Tre Tucker LV 41.556 OVER 41 15 Less efficient (8.2 vs 9.9 yds/tgt) WRONG
Malik Benson LV —4 no side 6 2 On target

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.