Week 4 · Sunday 16:05

MIAMIA at MINMIN

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

MIA moneyline+400
MIN moneyline-535
SpreadMIN -10
Total38.5

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 4, 2:11 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceMIN 60%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total42.3points, both teams
Leo marginMIN by 15.7expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Malik Willis MIA QB1 7.229.81.13 220
Carson Wentz MIN QB1 7.226.712 183

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Aaron Jones MIN RB1 4.315.313 65
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB1 3.97.30.92 27
Jaylen Wright MIA RB2 43.40.92 14
Demond Claiborne MIN RB2 4.21.612 8

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Malik Washington MIA WR1 6.75.71.13 44
Jordan Addison MIN WR1 5.65.413 34
Chris Bell MIA WR2 7.43.31.13 29
Jauan Jennings MIN WR3 3.63.512 16
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA WR3 0.42.71.12 5
Tai Felton MIN WR2 10.711 4
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Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 5, 5:46 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

MIA Game status

3 out

  • Out Caleb DouglasWR Ankle
  • Out Rob Beal Jr.LB Hamstring
  • Out Storm DuckCB Knee / Achilles
MIN Game status

3 out

  • Out Justin JeffersonWR Ankle
  • Out Charles DemmingsCB Hamstring
  • Out Brett ThorsonP Hamstring

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

MIA This season MIN
38 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 28
43 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 34
32 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 72
38 Overall 53
QB 47 · OFF 48 · DEF 39 Last season QB 27 · OFF 33 · DEF 62

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

MIA Per game, this season MIN
0.67Interceptions thrown0.67
1.00Interceptions caught1.33
0.67Fumbles lost0.00
0.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.00Takeaways2.33
1.33Giveaways0.67
-0.33Net turnover margin+1.67

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

MIA Offense MIN
-0.017EPA per dropback-0.164
-2.5Completion % over expected-3.9
3.1%Interception rate3.7%
8.3%Sack rate taken11.0%
-0.089Rush EPA per carry-0.061
6.0%Explosive play rate4.8%
MIA Defense MIN
+0.111EPA allowed per play-0.127
6.06Yards allowed per play5.11
2.2%Sack rate5.7%
1.3%Interception rate forced1.3%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is MIA, right is MIN.

MIA This season MIN
3Games3
209Pass yards/g154
98.3Rush yards/g101.3
1Passing TD4
2Interceptions thrown2
231Pass yards allowed/g265.3
104.3Rush yards allowed/g85.7
3Interceptions forced4
MIA Last season MIN
195.4Pass yards/g188.7
120.2Rush yards/g108.3
23Passing TD18
18Interceptions thrown21
230.6Pass yards allowed/g177.7
132.4Rush yards allowed/g124.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

MIA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB38

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Malik Willis349/86 57%627209 1 / 27.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
De'Von Achane334 1273.70
Ollie Gordon II220 482.41

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Malik Washington WR13 12/2352.2%152 50.70
Caleb Douglas WR22 7/1070%113 56.50
Greg Dulcich TE3 9/1275%90 300
MIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB28

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Carson Wentz223/39 59%276138 3 / 07.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Aaron Jones352 2033.91
Jordan Mason115 593.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Justin Jefferson WR13 13/1776.5%179 59.72
Jordan Addison WR23 7/1643.8%111 371
T.J. Hockenson TE3 9/1369.2%76 25.31

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

MIA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tua Tagovailoa14260/384 67.7%2660190 20 / 156.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
De'Von Achane16238 13505.78
Ollie Gordon II1770 1992.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jaylen Waddle WR116 64/10064%910 56.96
Malik Washington WR217 46/6570.8%317 18.63
Darren Waller TE9 24/3470.6%283 31.46
MIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB27

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
J.J. McCarthy10140/243 57.6%1632163.2 11 / 126.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jordan Mason16159 7584.86
Aaron Jones12132 5484.22

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Justin Jefferson WR117 84/14159.6%1048 61.62
Jordan Addison WR214 42/7953.2%610 43.63
T.J. Hockenson TE15 51/6677.3%438 29.23

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Jauan Jennings (MIN, 29%) and Ollie Gordon II (MIA, 25%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
MIA Leo’s chance
  1. Ollie Gordon II RB1 25% scored
  2. Kevin Coleman Jr. WR3 19% no TD
  3. Chris Bell WR2 17% no TD
MIN Leo’s chance
  1. Jauan Jennings WR3 29% no TD
  2. Jordan Addison WR1 24% no TD
  3. Aaron Jones RB1 24% no TD

Final result

MIA 10 – 15 MIN

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

MIA
Malik Willis QB 9/1785 yds0 TD0 INT
Ollie Gordon II RB 9 car100 yds1 TD2 rec, 0 yds
Jaylen Wright RB 5 car7 yds0 TD
Malik Washington WR 2 car3 yds0 TD5 rec, 67 yds
Malik Washington WR 5/567 yds0 TD
Will Kacmarek TE 1/215 yds0 TD
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR 1/43 yds0 TD
MIN
Kyler Murray QB 27/37247 yds0 TD0 INT
Aaron Jones RB 20 car94 yds0 TD4 rec, 34 yds
Demond Claiborne RB 3 car12 yds0 TD
Jordan Addison WR 1 car-1 yds0 TD4 rec, 52 yds
T.J. Hockenson TE 13/13119 yds0 TD
Jordan Addison WR 4/652 yds0 TD
Aaron Jones RB 4/834 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerMIN 60%—MIN wonNO PICK
Total points42.338.525OVER · WRONG
MarginMIN by 15.7MIN −10MIN by 5MIN −10 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Malik Willis MIA 169.5220 OVER 85 135 Fewer attempts (17 vs 29.8 expected) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Ollie Gordon II MIA 24.527 OVER 100 73 More efficient (11.1 vs 3.9 yds/carry) RIGHT
Aaron Jones MIN 66.565 no side 94 29 More carries (20 vs 15.3 expected) NO LEAN
Jaylen Wright MIA 27.514 UNDER 7 7 On target RIGHT
Demond Claiborne MIN —8 no side 12 4 On target

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Chris Bell MIA 34.529 UNDER 0 29 Less efficient (0 vs 7.4 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Malik Washington MIA 40.544 OVER 67 23 More efficient (13.4 vs 6.7 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Jordan Addison MIN 62.534 UNDER 52 18 More efficient (8.7 vs 5.6 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Tai Felton MIN 15.54 UNDER 14 10 More efficient (14 vs 1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Jauan Jennings MIN 26.516 UNDER 8 8 On target RIGHT
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA 14.55 UNDER 3 2 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.