Week 3 · Sunday 16:05

MINMIN at TBTB

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass

MIN moneyline-112
TB moneyline-108
SpreadMIN -1.5
Total42.5

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 2:27 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceTB 52%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total43.7points, both teams
Leo marginMIN by 4.7expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Baker Mayfield TB QB1 6.631.51.12 219
Carson Wentz MIN QB1 7.226.712 188

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bucky Irving TB RB1 4.414.912 66
Aaron Jones MIN RB1 414.30.92 54
Kenny Gainwell TB RB2 45.112 23
DeeJay Dallas MIN RB2 2.10.80.92 5

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Justin Jefferson MIN WR1 8.58.112 69
Emeka Egbuka TB WR1 7.46.71.12 52
Chris Godwin Jr. TB WR3 9.94.91.12 51
Ted Hurst III TB WR2 7.95.21.12 44
Jordan Addison MIN WR2 5.14.612 23
Jauan Jennings MIN WR3 3.53.811 12
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

MIN This season TB
32 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 41
37 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 43
66 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 47
51 Overall 45
QB 27 · OFF 33 · DEF 62 Last season QB 46 · OFF 50 · DEF 47

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

MIN Per game, this season TB
0.50Interceptions thrown0.50
1.00Interceptions caught0.50
0.00Fumbles lost2.00
1.50Fumbles forced0.00
2.50Takeaways0.50
0.50Giveaways2.50
+2Net turnover margin-2

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

MIN Offense TB
-0.117EPA per dropback-0.105
-4.0Completion % over expected+1.2
3.7%Interception rate1.9%
11.4%Sack rate taken7.6%
-0.054Rush EPA per carry+0.023
4.7%Explosive play rate5.7%
MIN Defense TB
-0.108EPA allowed per play+0.005
5.23Yards allowed per play5.82
5.1%Sack rate3.3%
1.0%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is MIN, right is TB.

MIN This season TB
2Games2
147Pass yards/g199
113Rush yards/g113
3Passing TD1
1Interceptions thrown1
289.5Pass yards allowed/g246
100Rush yards allowed/g75
2Interceptions forced1
MIN Last season TB
188.7Pass yards/g220.9
108.3Rush yards/g114.5
18Passing TD26
21Interceptions thrown11
177.7Pass yards allowed/g254.8
124.1Rush yards allowed/g99.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

MIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB32

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Carson Wentz223/39 59%276138 3 / 07.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Aaron Jones235 1454.11
Jordan Mason115 593.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Justin Jefferson WR12 11/1573.3%147 73.52
Jordan Addison WR22 2/728.6%21 10.50
T.J. Hockenson TE2 7/977.8%65 32.51
TB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB41

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield244/62 71%398199 1 / 16.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving225 1345.41
Kenny Gainwell27 253.60

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR12 8/1172.7%79 39.51
Ted Hurst III WR22 5/1050%63 31.50
Cade Otton TE2 8/1172.7%64 320

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

MIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB27

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
J.J. McCarthy10140/243 57.6%1632163.2 11 / 126.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jordan Mason16159 7584.86
Aaron Jones12132 5484.22

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Justin Jefferson WR117 84/14159.6%1048 61.62
Jordan Addison WR214 42/7953.2%610 43.63
T.J. Hockenson TE15 51/6677.3%438 29.23
TB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield17343/543 63.2%3693217.2 26 / 116.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving10173 5883.41
Rachaad White17132 5724.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR117 63/12749.6%938 55.26
Mike Evans WR28 30/6248.4%368 463
Cade Otton TE15 59/8172.8%572 38.11

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Justin Jefferson (MIN, 37%) and Emeka Egbuka (TB, 35%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
MIN Leo’s chance
  1. Justin Jefferson WR1 37% no TD
  2. Jauan Jennings WR3 34% no TD
  3. Aaron Jones RB1 25% no TD
TB Leo’s chance
  1. Emeka Egbuka WR1 35% no TD
  2. Bucky Irving RB1 25% no TD
  3. Ted Hurst III WR2 20% scored

Final result

MIN 23 – 16 TB

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

MIN
Kyler Murray QB 15/29168 yds1 TD1 INT
Aaron Jones RB 17 car58 yds0 TD5 rec, 34 yds
Demond Claiborne RB 3 car1 yds0 TD
DeeJay Dallas RB 1 car2 yds0 TD
Jordan Addison WR 5/990 yds1 TD
Aaron Jones RB 5/634 yds0 TD
Justin Jefferson WR 2/232 yds0 TD
TB
Baker Mayfield QB 17/34217 yds1 TD1 INT
Bucky Irving RB 15 car46 yds0 TD2 rec, 12 yds
Kenny Gainwell RB 3 car-4 yds0 TD2 rec, 14 yds
Emeka Egbuka WR 5/962 yds0 TD
Cade Otton TE 3/656 yds0 TD
Ted Hurst III WR 1/340 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerTB 52%—MIN wonNO PICK
Total points43.742.539no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginMIN by 4.7MIN −1.5MIN by 7MIN −1.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Baker Mayfield TB 216.5219 no side 217 2 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Kenny Gainwell TB 18.523 OVER -4 27 Less efficient (-1.3 vs 4 yds/carry) WRONG
Bucky Irving TB 57.566 OVER 46 20 Less efficient (3.1 vs 4.4 yds/carry) WRONG
Aaron Jones MIN 52.554 no side 58 4 On target NO LEAN
DeeJay Dallas MIN —5 no side 2 3 On target

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jordan Addison MIN 36.523 UNDER 90 67 More efficient (10 vs 5.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Justin Jefferson MIN 75.569 UNDER 32 37 Fewer targets (2 vs 8.1 expected) RIGHT
Chris Godwin Jr. TB 35.551 OVER 25 26 Less efficient (6.3 vs 9.9 yds/tgt) WRONG
Jauan Jennings MIN —12 no side 1 11 Fewer targets (2 vs 3.8 expected)
Emeka Egbuka TB 49.552 OVER 62 10 More targets (9 vs 6.7 expected) RIGHT
Ted Hurst III TB 24.544 OVER 40 4 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.