Week 6 · Sunday 16:05

ARIARI at LALA

SoFi Stadium · dome · Division game

ARI moneyline+500
LA moneyline-700
SpreadLA -12.5
Total51.5

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 6 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 5), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 18, 2:48 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceLA 77%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total52points, both teams
Leo marginLA by 13.1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Matthew Stafford LA QB1 7.440.91.15 318
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB1 6400.95 196

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Kyren Williams LA RB1 4.814.31.15 75
Tyler Allgeier ARI RB1 3.910.81.15 48
Blake Corum LA RB2 4.67.81.15 41
Bam Knight ARI RB2 4.16.71.12 32

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Puka Nacua LA WR1 8.612.61.13 121
Davante Adams LA WR2 7.78.91.15 76
Michael Wilson ARI WR1 6.19.10.95 51
Kendrick Bourne ARI WR2 7.64.90.94 35
Reggie Virgil ARI WR3 5.84.10.91 24
Konata Mumpfield LA WR3 5.33.11.14 21
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Injury report

The official Week 6 report for each side, as captured Mon, Oct 19, 4:19 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

ARI Game status

3 out · 4 questionable

  • Out Jeremiyah LoveRB Ankle
  • Out Andrew WingardS Knee
  • Out Wydett Williams Jr.S Concussion
  • Questionable Zaven CollinsLB Hip
  • Questionable Budda BakerS Not injury related - resting player / Groin
  • Questionable Kitan CrawfordS Ankle
  • Questionable Blake GillikinP Back
LA Game status

2 questionable

  • Questionable Trent McDuffieCB Groin
  • Questionable Kam CurlS Ankle

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

ARI This season LA
48 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 61
44 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 64
37 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 58
40 Overall 61
QB 50 · OFF 47 · DEF 39 Last season QB 72 · OFF 73 · DEF 55

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

ARI Per game, this season LA
1.00Interceptions thrown1.20
0.60Interceptions caught0.80
0.00Fumbles lost0.40
1.40Fumbles forced1.00
2.00Takeaways1.80
1.00Giveaways1.60
+1Net turnover margin+0.2

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

ARI Offense LA
-0.002EPA per dropback+0.182
+1.7Completion % over expected+0.4
2.1%Interception rate2.1%
6.8%Sack rate taken3.4%
-0.058Rush EPA per carry-0.032
3.7%Explosive play rate7.1%
ARI Defense LA
+0.103EPA allowed per play-0.034
6.14Yards allowed per play5.22
3.3%Sack rate3.3%
1.0%Interception rate forced1.4%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is ARI, right is LA.

ARI This season LA
5Games5
223.4Pass yards/g317
91.6Rush yards/g116.8
9Passing TD9
5Interceptions thrown6
252.4Pass yards allowed/g165
126.6Rush yards allowed/g128.4
3Interceptions forced4
ARI Last season LA
256.1Pass yards/g282.2
93.1Rush yards/g124.7
29Passing TD52
11Interceptions thrown9
242.8Pass yards allowed/g242.8
126.9Rush yards allowed/g110.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

ARI 2026

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett5132/199 66.3%1110222 9 / 55.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jeremiyah Love567 2453.71
Tyler Allgeier535 1193.41

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR15 29/5156.9%288 57.61
Kendrick Bourne WR24 17/2277.3%178 44.50
Trey McBride TE5 42/5675%308 61.63
LA 2026

Quarterback Leo QB61

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford5139/216 64.4%1572314.4 9 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams570 3434.94
Blake Corum538 1814.81

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Davante Adams WR15 27/4560%441 88.24
Puka Nacua WR23 31/4568.9%337 112.31
Tyler Higbee TE4 20/2580%224 561

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

ARI 2025

Quarterback Leo QB50

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jacoby Brissett14315/485 64.9%3366240.4 23 / 86.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Michael Carter1392 3333.61
Bam Knight1282 2693.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Wilson WR117 78/12661.9%1006 59.27
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR212 41/7356.2%608 50.74
Trey McBride TE17 126/16974.6%1239 72.911
LA 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Matthew Stafford20454/716 63.4%5643282.2 52 / 97.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kyren Williams20303 14354.712
Blake Corum20171 8655.16

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Puka Nacua WR119 153/20873.6%2047 107.712
Davante Adams WR217 71/13951.1%974 57.315
Colby Parkinson TE17 51/7072.9%560 32.99

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Kyren Williams (LA, 64%) and Puka Nacua (LA, 60%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
ARI Leo’s chance
  1. Trey McBride TE1 44% no TD
  2. Michael Wilson WR1 34% no TD
  3. Tyler Allgeier RB1 25% no TD
LA Leo’s chance
  1. Kyren Williams RB1 64% no TD
  2. Puka Nacua WR1 60% no TD
  3. Davante Adams WR2 47% no TD

Final result

ARI 18 – 16 LA

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB 24/35218 yds0 TD1 INT
Tyler Allgeier RB 18 car38 yds0 TD1 rec, 10 yds
Bam Knight RB 15 car80 yds0 TD2 rec, 18 yds
Trey McBride TE 7/953 yds0 TD
Kendrick Bourne WR 5/847 yds0 TD
Michael Wilson WR 4/732 yds0 TD
LA
Matthew Stafford QB 25/33222 yds2 TD0 INT
Kyren Williams RB 10 car50 yds0 TD3 rec, 17 yds
Blake Corum RB 9 car42 yds0 TD2 rec, 18 yds
Davis Allen TE 1 car0 yds0 TD
Puka Nacua WR 6/780 yds0 TD
Davante Adams WR 3/439 yds0 TD
Colby Parkinson TE 5/631 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerLA 77%—ARI wonNO PICK
Total points5251.534no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginLA by 13.1LA −12.5ARI by 2no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Matthew Stafford LA 280.5318 OVER 222 96 Fewer attempts (33 vs 40.9 expected) WRONG
Jacoby Brissett ARI 237.5196 UNDER 218 22 Fewer attempts (35 vs 40 expected) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bam Knight ARI —32 no side 80 48 More carries (15 vs 6.7 expected)
Kyren Williams LA 69.575 OVER 50 25 Fewer carries (10 vs 14.3 expected) WRONG
Tyler Allgeier ARI 49.548 no side 38 10 Less efficient (2.1 vs 3.9 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Blake Corum LA 43.541 UNDER 42 1 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Puka Nacua LA 92.5121 OVER 80 41 Fewer targets (7 vs 12.6 expected) WRONG
Davante Adams LA 57.576 OVER 39 37 Fewer targets (4 vs 8.9 expected) WRONG
Michael Wilson ARI 60.551 UNDER 32 19 Fewer targets (7 vs 9.1 expected) RIGHT
Kendrick Bourne ARI 30.535 OVER 47 12 More targets (8 vs 4.9 expected) RIGHT
Konata Mumpfield LA —21 no side 15 6 On target

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.