Week 3 · Sunday 13:00

NENE at JAXJAX

EverBank Stadium · outdoors · grass

NE moneyline+136
JAX moneyline-162
SpreadJAX -3
Total46.5

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 21, 12:50 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceJAX 62%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total40.8points, both teams
Leo marginJAX by 1.8expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Drake Maye NE QB1 828.212 225
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB1 7.729.50.92 208

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
TreVeyon Henderson NE RB1 4.713.30.91 63
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB2 510.60.92 54
Bhayshul Tuten JAX RB1 4.29.80.92 42
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX RB2 3.67.70.92 29

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Jakobi Meyers JAX WR3 16.24.70.92 71
Parker Washington JAX WR1 9.77.50.92 67
Romeo Doubs NE WR3 10.44.612 48
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX WR2 8.760.92 48
Mack Hollins NE WR2 8.94.112 36
DeMario Douglas NE WR1 7.93.512 27
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

NE This season JAX
52 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 59
52 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 61
65 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 59
58 Overall 60
QB 68 · OFF 63 · DEF 60 Last season QB 52 · OFF 55 · DEF 62

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

NE Per game, this season JAX
2.00Interceptions thrown0.50
0.50Interceptions caught1.00
0.50Fumbles lost0.00
1.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.50Takeaways2.00
2.50Giveaways0.50
-1Net turnover margin+1.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

NE Offense JAX
+0.085EPA per dropback+0.134
+6.5Completion % over expected+2.3
3.7%Interception rate2.2%
9.9%Sack rate taken6.2%
-0.032Rush EPA per carry-0.006
6.9%Explosive play rate6.2%
NE Defense JAX
-0.115EPA allowed per play-0.056
5.07Yards allowed per play5.6
4.3%Sack rate3.5%
1.1%Interception rate forced2.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is NE, right is JAX.

NE This season JAX
2Games2
193Pass yards/g217
122.5Rush yards/g110.5
1Passing TD4
4Interceptions thrown1
193.5Pass yards allowed/g246.5
94Rush yards allowed/g95.5
1Interceptions forced2
NE Last season JAX
251.8Pass yards/g235.2
126.8Rush yards/g117.2
37Passing TD32
12Interceptions thrown14
200.9Pass yards allowed/g233.7
99.2Rush yards allowed/g85.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

NE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye237/55 67.3%386193 1 / 47

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rhamondre Stevenson224 943.90
TreVeyon Henderson116 764.81

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DeMario Douglas WR12 6/966.7%29 14.50
Mack Hollins WR22 6/785.7%69 34.50
Hunter Henry TE2 6/875%66 330
JAX 2026

Quarterback Leo QB59

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence235/52 67.3%434217 4 / 18.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bhayshul Tuten228 1314.71
Chris Rodriguez Jr.212 3630

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR12 12/1866.7%181 90.51
Brian Thomas Jr. WR22 6/1154.5%80 400
Brenton Strange TE2 4/580%40 201

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

NE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB68

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Drake Maye21424/612 69.3%5222248.7 37 / 128.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
TreVeyon Henderson21210 9874.79
Rhamondre Stevenson18188 8204.47

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Stefon Diggs WR121 99/12281.1%1123 53.55
Mack Hollins WR216 52/7569.3%679 42.43
Hunter Henry TE21 69/10267.6%880 41.98
JAX 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence18359/590 60.8%4214234.1 32 / 147.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne18270 11744.37
Bhayshul Tuten1687 3584.15

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR117 65/10760.7%954 56.16
Brian Thomas Jr. WR215 50/9353.8%728 48.53
Brenton Strange TE13 48/6573.8%549 42.23

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: TreVeyon Henderson (NE, 43%) and Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, 31%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
NE Leo’s chance
  1. TreVeyon Henderson RB1 43% no TD
  2. Rhamondre Stevenson RB2 25% no TD
  3. Romeo Doubs WR3 22% no TD
JAX Leo’s chance
  1. Bhayshul Tuten RB1 31% scored
  2. Parker Washington WR1 30% scored
  3. Jakobi Meyers WR3 26% scored

Final result

NE 6 – 35 JAX

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

NE
Drake Maye QB 14/25199 yds0 TD2 INT
TreVeyon Henderson RB 8 car23 yds0 TD1 rec, 6 yds
Rhamondre Stevenson RB 7 car22 yds0 TD3 rec, 16 yds
Corey Kiner RB 6 car18 yds0 TD1 rec, 9 yds
Mack Hollins WR 6/987 yds0 TD
Romeo Doubs WR 3/449 yds0 TD
DeMario Douglas WR 1/538 yds0 TD
JAX
Trevor Lawrence QB 19/29182 yds3 TD1 INT
Bhayshul Tuten RB 15 car73 yds1 TD2 rec, 17 yds
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 8 car37 yds1 TD
Ameer Abdullah RB 3 car2 yds0 TD
Jakobi Meyers WR 7/864 yds1 TD
Parker Washington WR 3/540 yds1 TD
Brenton Strange TE 3/532 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerJAX 62%—JAX wonRIGHT
Total points40.845.541UNDER · RIGHT
MarginJAX by 1.8JAX −3JAX by 29NE +3 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Drake Maye NE 222.5225 no side 199 26 Fewer attempts (25 vs 28.2 expected) NO LEAN
Trevor Lawrence JAX 228.5208 UNDER 182 26 Less efficient (6.3 vs 7.7 yds/att) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
TreVeyon Henderson NE 41.563 OVER 23 40 Fewer carries (8 vs 13.3 expected) WRONG
Rhamondre Stevenson NE 35.554 OVER 22 32 Fewer carries (7 vs 10.6 expected) WRONG
Bhayshul Tuten JAX 51.542 UNDER 73 31 More carries (15 vs 9.8 expected) WRONG
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX 20.529 OVER 37 8 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Mack Hollins NE 33.536 OVER 87 51 More targets (9 vs 4.1 expected) RIGHT
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 36.548 OVER 8 40 Fewer targets (1 vs 6 expected) WRONG
Parker Washington JAX 67.567 no side 40 27 Fewer targets (5 vs 7.5 expected) NO LEAN
DeMario Douglas NE 29.527 UNDER 38 11 More targets (5 vs 3.5 expected) WRONG
Jakobi Meyers JAX 34.571 OVER 64 7 On target RIGHT
Romeo Doubs NE 42.548 OVER 49 1 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.