Week 4 · Monday 20:15

ATLATL at NONO

Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf · Division game

ATL moneyline-102
NO moneyline-118
SpreadNO -1.5
Total47.5

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 5, 6:58 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceATL 52%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.8points, both teams
Leo marginNO by 3.4expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Tyler Shough NO QB1 7.139.41.13 291
Michael Penix Jr. ATL QB1 8.128.811 223

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bijan Robinson ATL RB1 520.11.13 109
Brian Robinson ATL RB2 4.18.51.13 39
Alvin Kamara NO RB1 3.99.80.92 34
Kendre Miller NO RB2 4.36.50.92 25

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Chris Olave NO WR1 9.710.91.13 116
Drake London ATL WR1 11.27.713 90
Devaughn Vele NO WR2 7.55.71.13 49
Bryce Lance NO WR3 6.22.41.13 19
Jahan Dotson ATL WR2 4.8313 18
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR3 3.73.213 15
Get Leo’s NFL card by email

Every game, Leo’s winner and total, and the most likely touchdown scorers, before kickoff. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Injury report

The official Week 4 report for each side, as captured Tue, Oct 6, 3:57 PM ET. Teams file game statuses on the last practice day; anyone not listed is expected to play. Final inactives come 90 minutes before kickoff.

ATL Game status

3 questionable

  • Questionable Samson EbukamDE Hamstring
  • Questionable Divine DeabloLB Hamstring
  • Questionable Yasir AbdullahLB Illness
NO Game status

3 out · 2 questionable

  • Out Anfernee JenningsLB Knee
  • Out Carl GrandersonLB Ankle
  • Out Kaden EllissLB Calf
  • Questionable Noah FantTE Abdomen
  • Questionable Pete WernerLB Shoulder

Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

ATL This season NO
27 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 49
38 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 42
56 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 52
47 Overall 47
QB 47 · OFF 49 · DEF 57 Last season QB 45 · OFF 36 · DEF 59

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

ATL Per game, this season NO
2.00Interceptions thrown1.00
0.33Interceptions caught0.33
0.67Fumbles lost1.33
0.67Fumbles forced1.33
1.00Takeaways1.67
2.67Giveaways2.33
-1.67Net turnover margin-0.67

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

ATL Offense NO
-0.152EPA per dropback-0.002
-5.2Completion % over expected+2.8
4.1%Interception rate2.1%
6.1%Sack rate taken7.4%
-0.011Rush EPA per carry-0.069
5.1%Explosive play rate4.5%
ATL Defense NO
-0.021EPA allowed per play-0.003
5.42Yards allowed per play5.32
4.2%Sack rate4.0%
1.1%Interception rate forced0.8%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is ATL, right is NO.

ATL This season NO
3Games3
181.3Pass yards/g305.7
173Rush yards/g101.3
2Passing TD8
6Interceptions thrown3
273.3Pass yards allowed/g229.7
47.7Rush yards allowed/g128.7
1Interceptions forced1
ATL Last season NO
217.8Pass yards/g236.9
125.8Rush yards/g94.3
19Passing TD19
8Interceptions thrown12
221.9Pass yards allowed/g196.2
126.2Rush yards allowed/g120.6

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

ATL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB27

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cooper Rush222/39 56.4%229114.5 1 / 45.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson366 3495.32
Brian Robinson330 1324.41

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR13 15/1978.9%274 91.30
Jahan Dotson WR23 4/1040%41 13.70
Kyle Pitts TE3 2/633.3%20 6.70
NO 2026

Quarterback Leo QB49

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough391/132 68.9%917305.7 8 / 36.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne330 1284.30
Alvin Kamara218 512.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR13 27/3675%375 1251
Devaughn Vele WR23 15/2268.2%172 57.31
Juwan Johnson TE3 15/1978.9%173 57.73

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

ATL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Michael Penix Jr.9166/276 60.1%1982220.2 9 / 37.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson17287 14785.17
Tyler Allgeier17143 5143.68

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR112 68/11260.7%919 76.67
Darnell Mooney WR215 32/7244.4%443 29.51
Kyle Pitts TE17 88/11874.6%928 54.65
NO 2025

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Tyler Shough11221/327 67.6%2384216.7 10 / 67.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Alvin Kamara11131 4713.61
Devin Neal957 2063.62

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Chris Olave WR116 100/15664.1%1163 72.79
Rashid Shaheed WR29 44/6666.7%499 55.42
Juwan Johnson TE17 77/10275.5%889 52.33

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Bijan Robinson (ATL, 42%) and Chris Olave (NO, 37%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
ATL Leo’s chance
  1. Bijan Robinson RB1 42% scored 2
  2. Drake London WR1 24% no TD
  3. Brian Robinson RB2 23% scored 3
NO Leo’s chance
  1. Chris Olave WR1 37% no TD
  2. Devaughn Vele WR2 27% scored
  3. Kendre Miller RB2 25% no TD

Final result

ATL 45 – 24 NO

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

ATL
Michael Penix Jr. QB 15/20223 yds1 TD0 INT
Bijan Robinson RB 19 car145 yds2 TD1 rec, 2 yds
Brian Robinson RB 14 car62 yds3 TD1 rec, 5 yds
Drake London WR 5/696 yds0 TD
Jahan Dotson WR 2/354 yds1 TD
Kyle Pitts TE 3/347 yds0 TD
NO
Tyler Shough QB 30/48286 yds1 TD0 INT
Alvin Kamara RB 7 car23 yds2 TD5 rec, 35 yds
Kendre Miller RB 6 car9 yds0 TD2 rec, 10 yds
CJ Donaldson RB 3 car18 yds0 TD2 rec, 5 yds
Chris Olave WR 8/12116 yds0 TD
Juwan Johnson TE 6/859 yds0 TD
Devaughn Vele WR 6/954 yds1 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerATL 52%—ATL wonNO PICK
Total points45.847.569UNDER · WRONG
MarginNO by 3.4NO −1.5ATL by 21NO −1.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyler Shough NO 258.5291 OVER 286 5 On target RIGHT
Michael Penix Jr. ATL 225.5223 no side 223 0 On target NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bijan Robinson ATL 91.5109 OVER 145 36 More efficient (7.6 vs 5 yds/carry) RIGHT
Brian Robinson ATL 30.539 OVER 62 23 More carries (14 vs 8.5 expected) RIGHT
Kendre Miller NO 26.525 UNDER 9 16 Less efficient (1.5 vs 4.3 yds/carry) RIGHT
Alvin Kamara NO 35.534 no side 23 11 Fewer carries (7 vs 9.8 expected) NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jahan Dotson ATL 18.518 no side 54 36 More efficient (18 vs 4.8 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL 8.515 OVER 0 15 Fewer targets (1 vs 3.2 expected) WRONG
Bryce Lance NO 15.519 OVER 7 12 Less efficient (1.4 vs 6.2 yds/tgt) WRONG
Drake London ATL 81.590 OVER 96 6 On target RIGHT
Devaughn Vele NO 46.549 OVER 54 5 On target RIGHT
Chris Olave NO 87.5116 OVER 116 0 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.