NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 11:00 PM ET · Moda Center
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. OKC at POR.
Oklahoma City Thunder56%Leo win chance
Portland Trail Blazers44%Leo win chanceBoth have OKC winning: Leo by 2, DraftKings by 1.5. They are 0.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: OKC 112, POR 110 (total 222). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has OKC by 2
- Team strength: OKC rates 4.6 pts better than POR on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to POR.
- Injuries: OKC is missing more, 0.7 pts toward POR.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to POR’s expected margin. Positive helps POR, negative helps OKC.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -4.6 | POR rated +3.3, OKC +8.2 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | POR 3 days, OKC 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.7 | Value of regulars on the injury report: POR 8.5, OKC 11.8 |
| Leo’s margin | -2.1 | OKC by 2.1 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Jaylin Williams Out Back Spasms · in Leo’s number, plays 18.4 min a game
- Thomas Sorber Out Knee
- Cason Wallace Out Shoulder Surgery · in Leo’s number, plays 16.3 min a game
- Chet Holmgren Out Knee · in Leo’s number, plays 30 min a game
- Jalen Williams Out Leg Fracture · in Leo’s number, plays 31.7 min a game
- Ja Morant Out Hamstring Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 26 min a game
- Vit Krejci Out Ankle · in Leo’s number, plays 10.3 min a game
- Shaedon Sharpe Out Knee Surgery
Form
8-2 this season · 112.2 scored, 104.2 allowed a game
- W 114-75 vs WSH 11-07
- W 128-97 at MEM 11-06
- W 124-116 vs CLE 11-04
- W 117-112 at CLE 11-02
- L 98-119 at HOU 10-31
6-3 this season · 119.3 scored, 113.8 allowed a game
- L 103-125 vs SA 11-07
- L 118-124 at LAL 11-06
- W 132-119 at PHX 11-04
- W 118-110 at DEN 11-02
- W 112-90 at UTAH 10-31
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 10 | 32.9 | 29.9 | 33.8 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| Jalen Williams Out | 3 | 31.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Chet Holmgren Out | 3 | 30 | 12 | 12 | 9.3 | 1.3 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 10 | 27.2 | 18.9 | 19.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Jared McCain | 10 | 25.2 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 10 | 24.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 10.1 | 3.3 |
| Aday Mara | 10 | 19.8 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 1.3 |
| Jaylin Williams Out | 7 | 18.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 4 | 1.6 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 9 | 32.1 | 22.3 | 22 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| Damian Lillard | 9 | 29.4 | 19.4 | 20.2 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Toumani Camara | 9 | 27.2 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| Ja Morant Out | 4 | 26 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Jrue Holiday | 9 | 25.9 | 13 | 13.8 | 3.6 | 4 |
| Donovan Clingan | 9 | 24.8 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 10 | 1.3 |
| Scoot Henderson | 9 | 22.4 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 9 | 21.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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