NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Paycom Center
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. CLE at OKC.
Cleveland Cavaliers45%Leo win chance
Oklahoma City Thunder55%Leo win chanceBoth have OKC winning: Leo by 2, DraftKings by 3.5. They are 1.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: CLE 113, OKC 115 (total 228). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has OKC by 2
- Team strength: OKC rates 1.9 pts better than CLE on results so far.
- Injuries: OKC is missing more, 1.9 pts toward CLE.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to OKC.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to OKC’s expected margin. Positive helps OKC, negative helps CLE.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +1.9 | OKC rated +4.5, CLE +2.5 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | OKC 2 days, CLE 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -1.9 | Value of regulars on the injury report: OKC 11.8, CLE 3.2 |
| Leo’s margin | +1.7 | OKC by 1.7 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Jaylon Tyson Out Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number, plays 20.8 min a game
- Peyton Watson Out Hamstring Soreness · in Leo’s number, plays 28.3 min a game
- Nikola Topic Out Back
- Thomas Sorber Out Knee
- Jaylin Williams Day to day Back Spasms · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 18.4 min a game
- Cason Wallace Out Shoulder Surgery · in Leo’s number, plays 16.3 min a game
- Chet Holmgren Out Knee · in Leo’s number, plays 30 min a game
- Jalen Williams Out Leg Fracture · in Leo’s number, plays 31.7 min a game
Form
4-3 this season · 119.7 scored, 116.1 allowed a game
- L 112-117 vs OKC 11-02
- W 136-111 at MIL 10-31
- L 111-114 at ATL 10-29
- W 121-111 vs WSH 10-28
- W 127-125 vs MIN 10-26
5-2 this season · 108 scored, 107.7 allowed a game
- W 117-112 at CLE 11-02
- L 98-119 at HOU 10-31
- L 96-120 at DAL 10-28
- W 125-114 vs PHX 10-26
- W 108-101 vs LAC 10-25
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 7 | 33.4 | 16.3 | 17.2 | 4.7 | 6.3 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 7 | 33.1 | 21.9 | 19.8 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Evan Mobley | 7 | 32.9 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 8 | 3.6 |
| Peyton Watson Out | 6 | 28.3 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 4 | 3 |
| Jarrett Allen | 7 | 27.7 | 15.1 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 1.4 |
| Sam Merrill | 7 | 24 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 3 | 2.3 |
| Meleek Thomas | 4 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 1 |
| Jaylon Tyson Out | 5 | 20.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 7 | 33.6 | 28.4 | 30 | 4.3 | 4 |
| Jalen Williams Out | 3 | 31.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Chet Holmgren Out | 3 | 30 | 12 | 12 | 9.3 | 1.3 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 7 | 26.9 | 17 | 20.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| Jared McCain | 7 | 25 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 7 | 24.6 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 2.3 |
| Alex Caruso | 4 | 19 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Jaylin Williams Day to day | 7 | 18.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 4 | 1.6 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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