NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · crypto.com Arena
Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. POR at LAL.
Portland Trail Blazers42%Leo win chance
Los Angeles Lakers58%Leo win chanceBoth have LAL winning: Leo by 3, DraftKings by 3.5. They are 0.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: POR 115, LAL 118 (total 233). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has LAL by 3
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to LAL.
- Injuries: POR is missing more, 1.6 pts toward LAL.
- Team strength: POR rates 0.6 pts better than LAL on results so far.
What could still move it. Sandro Mamukelashvili (LAL, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.4 toward POR; if he plays, 0.3 toward LAL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to LAL’s expected margin. Positive helps LAL, negative helps POR.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -0.6 | LAL rated +4.1, POR +4.7 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | LAL 2 days, POR 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +1.6 | Value of regulars on the injury report: LAL 1.3, POR 8.5 |
| Leo’s margin | +2.8 | LAL by 2.8 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Vit Krejci Out Ankle · in Leo’s number, plays 10.3 min a game
- Ja Morant Out Hamstring Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 26 min a game
- Shaedon Sharpe Out Knee Surgery
- Sandro Mamukelashvili Day to day Illness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 23.6 min a game
Form
6-1 this season · 121.9 scored, 110.7 allowed a game
- W 132-119 at PHX 11-04
- W 118-110 at DEN 11-02
- W 112-90 at UTAH 10-31
- L 103-124 vs MEM 10-29
- W 136-129 at LAL 10-27
7-2 this season · 121.8 scored, 113.9 allowed a game
- W 116-103 at SAC 11-04
- W 138-117 vs MIA 11-02
- W 131-125 vs TOR 11-01
- L 95-112 at GS 10-30
- W 103-87 at LAC 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 7 | 32.3 | 23.4 | 24 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Damian Lillard | 7 | 29.7 | 20.1 | 19.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Toumani Camara | 7 | 27.7 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| Ja Morant Out | 4 | 26 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Jrue Holiday | 7 | 26 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Donovan Clingan | 7 | 24.7 | 12 | 13 | 10.6 | 1.6 |
| Scoot Henderson | 7 | 22.1 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 7 | 21.7 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 9 | 35.9 | 23.3 | 20.8 | 3.2 | 5 |
| Luka Doncic | 8 | 35.6 | 38.5 | 41 | 8.1 | 8 |
| Walker Kessler | 9 | 30.6 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 10.2 | 1.1 |
| Quentin Grimes | 9 | 26.1 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 3 | 2.7 |
| Ziaire Williams | 6 | 25.3 | 10.7 | 11 | 3 | 2 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 9 | 24.2 | 8 | 8 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili Day to day | 9 | 23.6 | 9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| Jake LaRavia | 8 | 23.4 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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