NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · FedExForum
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. OKC at MEM.
Oklahoma City Thunder50%Leo win chance
Memphis Grizzlies50%Leo win chanceProjected score: OKC 111, MEM 111 (total 222). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has a pick'em
- Team strength: OKC rates 2.6 pts better than MEM on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to MEM.
- Injuries: OKC is missing more, 1.0 pts toward MEM.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to MEM’s expected margin. Positive helps MEM, negative helps OKC.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -2.6 | MEM rated +2.1, OKC +4.8 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | MEM 2 days, OKC 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +1.0 | Value of regulars on the injury report: MEM 7.1, OKC 11.8 |
| Leo’s margin | +0.1 | MEM by 0.1 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Jaylin Williams Out Back Spasms · in Leo’s number, plays 18.4 min a game
- Nikola Topic Out Back
- Thomas Sorber Out Knee
- Cason Wallace Out Shoulder Surgery · in Leo’s number, plays 16.3 min a game
- Chet Holmgren Out Knee · in Leo’s number, plays 30 min a game
- Jalen Williams Out Leg Fracture · in Leo’s number, plays 31.7 min a game
- Isaiah Stewart Out Knee Bruise · in Leo’s number, plays 18.3 min a game
- Scotty Pippen Jr. Out Back Soreness · in Leo’s number, plays 16.2 min a game
Form
6-2 this season · 110 scored, 108.8 allowed a game
- W 124-116 vs CLE 11-04
- W 117-112 at CLE 11-02
- L 98-119 at HOU 10-31
- L 96-120 at DAL 10-28
- W 125-114 vs PHX 10-26
6-2 this season · 120.5 scored, 109.8 allowed a game
- L 103-107 vs IND 11-04
- L 134-135 vs NO 11-02
- W 136-105 vs SAC 10-31
- W 124-103 at POR 10-29
- W 110-105 at UTAH 10-26
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 8 | 33.8 | 30.1 | 31.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Jalen Williams Out | 3 | 31.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Chet Holmgren Out | 3 | 30 | 12 | 12 | 9.3 | 1.3 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 8 | 27.5 | 17.8 | 21.6 | 4 | 3.5 |
| Jared McCain | 8 | 25 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 3 | 1.9 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 8 | 24.8 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 2.5 |
| Alex Caruso | 5 | 19.2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| Aday Mara | 8 | 19.1 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 8 | 32.1 | 16.5 | 17.2 | 9.8 | 5.4 |
| Ty Jerome | 7 | 30.9 | 27.4 | 23.8 | 3.6 | 5.3 |
| Cedric Coward | 7 | 29.3 | 14.3 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 2.7 |
| Jaylen Wells | 8 | 27.3 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| Jerami Grant | 8 | 24.3 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Zach Edey | 7 | 20.7 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Javon Small | 1 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| Cam Spencer | 8 | 19.8 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 5.8 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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