NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Paycom Center
Washington Wizards vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. WSH at OKC.
Washington Wizards19%Leo win chance
Oklahoma City Thunder81%Leo win chanceBoth have OKC winning: Leo by 12.5, DraftKings by 12.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: WSH 104, OKC 117 (total 221). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has OKC 81%, but the price is -597, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has OKC by 12.5
- Team strength: OKC rates 11.0 pts better than WSH on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to OKC.
What could still move it. Anthony Davis (WSH, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.5 toward OKC; if he plays, 1.0 toward WSH.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to OKC’s expected margin. Positive helps OKC, negative helps WSH.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +11.0 | OKC rated +6.7, WSH -5 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | OKC played last night, WSH played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | OKC 1 day, WSH 1 day (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.4 | Value of regulars on the injury report: OKC 11.8, WSH 9.9 |
| Leo’s margin | +12.4 | OKC by 12.4 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Anthony Davis Day to day Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 33.1 min a game
- Reece Beekman Out Shoulder
- Tristan Vukcevic Out Hip Pinched Nerve
- Justin Champagnie Out Foot Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 18.5 min a game
- Jamir Watkins Out Knee Surgery
- Jaylin Williams Day to day Back Spasms · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 18.4 min a game
- Thomas Sorber Out Knee
- Cason Wallace Out Shoulder Surgery · in Leo’s number, plays 16.3 min a game
- Chet Holmgren Out Knee · in Leo’s number, plays 30 min a game
- Jalen Williams Out Leg Fracture · in Leo’s number, plays 31.7 min a game
Form
4-5 this season · 111.4 scored, 112.3 allowed a game
- L 132-139 at ATL 11-06
- L 105-120 vs ATL 11-04
- W 103-94 at ORL 11-02
- W 95-79 vs CHA 10-30
- L 111-121 at CLE 10-28
7-2 this season · 112 scored, 107.4 allowed a game
- W 128-97 at MEM 11-06
- W 124-116 vs CLE 11-04
- W 117-112 at CLE 11-02
- L 98-119 at HOU 10-31
- L 96-120 at DAL 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 9 | 36 | 20 | 18.2 | 3.2 | 9.6 |
| Kyshawn George | 9 | 33.4 | 19 | 20 | 4.2 | 5 |
| Anthony Davis Day to day | 8 | 33.1 | 23.4 | 25 | 9.3 | 2.1 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 5 | 31.6 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 9 | 26.4 | 8 | 8 | 3.6 | 0.8 |
| Alex Sarr | 8 | 25.8 | 10 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 |
| Tre Johnson | 8 | 20.9 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 2 | 0.6 |
| Bub Carrington | 9 | 19.1 | 5.3 | 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 9 | 33.3 | 29.9 | 32 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| Jalen Williams Out | 3 | 31.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Chet Holmgren Out | 3 | 30 | 12 | 12 | 9.3 | 1.3 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 9 | 27.8 | 19.7 | 22.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Jared McCain | 9 | 25.4 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 9 | 24.9 | 7.4 | 6 | 9.7 | 3 |
| Alex Caruso | 6 | 19.3 | 8.2 | 8 | 4.8 | 3.3 |
| Aday Mara | 9 | 19 | 7 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 1.1 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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