NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Rocket Arena
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. OKC at CLE.
Oklahoma City Thunder38%Leo win chance
Cleveland Cavaliers62%Leo win chanceBoth have CLE winning: Leo by 4.5, DraftKings by 4.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: OKC 111, CLE 115 (total 226). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has CLE by 4.5
- Injuries: OKC is missing more, 3.8 pts toward CLE.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to CLE.
- Team strength: OKC rates 1.3 pts better than CLE on results so far.
What could still move it. Peyton Watson (CLE, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward OKC; if he plays, 0.2 toward CLE.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to CLE’s expected margin. Positive helps CLE, negative helps OKC.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -1.3 | CLE rated +2.8, OKC +4.2 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | CLE 2 days, OKC 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +3.8 | Value of regulars on the injury report: CLE 2, OKC 19.2 |
| Leo’s margin | +4.2 | CLE by 4.2 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
- Thomas Sorber Out Knee
- Cason Wallace Out Shoulder Surgery · counted, 16.3 min a game
- Chet Holmgren Out Knee · counted, 30 min a game
- Jalen Williams Out Leg Fracture · counted, 31.7 min a game
- Alex Caruso Out Ankle · counted, 19 min a game
- Nikola Topic Out Back
- Peyton Watson Day to day Hamstring Soreness · counted, 28.3 min a game
- Jaylon Tyson Out Ankle Sprain · counted, 20.8 min a game
Form
4-2 this season · 106.5 scored, 107 allowed a game
- L 98-119 at HOU 10-31
- L 96-120 at DAL 10-28
- W 125-114 vs PHX 10-26
- W 108-101 vs LAC 10-25
- W 96-84 vs DEN 10-22
4-2 this season · 121 scored, 116 allowed a game
- W 136-111 at MIL 10-31
- L 111-114 at ATL 10-29
- W 121-111 vs WSH 10-28
- W 127-125 vs MIN 10-26
- W 125-121 vs BKN 10-24
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 6 | 32.7 | 26 | 24.8 | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| Jalen Williams Out | 3 | 31.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Chet Holmgren Out | 3 | 30 | 12 | 12 | 9.3 | 1.3 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 6 | 25.5 | 16.5 | 19 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Jared McCain | 6 | 24.7 | 10.8 | 9 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 6 | 24 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 2 |
| Alex Caruso Out | 4 | 19 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Josh Dix | 3 | 18.3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 6 | 33.5 | 16.7 | 16.8 | 4.8 | 6.3 |
| Evan Mobley | 6 | 32.8 | 19.7 | 20 | 8.2 | 3.5 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 6 | 32.7 | 22.7 | 20.8 | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| Peyton Watson Day to day | 6 | 28.3 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 4 | 3 |
| Jarrett Allen | 6 | 27.7 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 9.2 | 1.5 |
| Sam Merrill | 6 | 23.7 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 3 | 2.3 |
| Jaylon Tyson Out | 5 | 20.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Meleek Thomas | 3 | 20.7 | 13 | 13 | 2.3 | 1 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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