NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Ball Arena
Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. POR at DEN.
Portland Trail Blazers45%Leo win chance
Denver Nuggets55%Leo win chanceBoth have DEN winning: Leo by 2, DraftKings by 4.5. They are 2.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: POR 115, DEN 117 (total 232). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has DEN by 2
- Team strength: POR rates 1.9 pts better than DEN on results so far.
- Injuries: POR is missing more, 1.9 pts toward DEN.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to DEN.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to DEN’s expected margin. Positive helps DEN, negative helps POR.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -1.9 | DEN rated +1.4, POR +3.4 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | +0.1 | DEN 3 days, POR 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +1.9 | Value of regulars on the injury report: DEN 0, POR 8.5 |
| Leo’s margin | +1.9 | DEN by 1.9 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
- Ja Morant Out Hamstring Not Specified · counted, 26 min a game
- Shaedon Sharpe Out Knee Surgery
- Spencer Jones Out Hamstring Not Specified
- Alpha Diallo Out Wrist Sprain
- Julian Strawther Out Knee Sprain
Form
4-1 this season · 120.6 scored, 109.2 allowed a game
- W 112-90 at UTAH 10-31
- L 103-124 vs MEM 10-29
- W 136-129 at LAL 10-27
- W 128-120 at SAC 10-23
- W 124-83 vs PHX 10-21
3-2 this season · 114 scored, 115.2 allowed a game
- W 127-120 at PHX 10-30
- W 104-91 at NO 10-28
- L 114-134 vs GS 10-26
- W 141-135 vs NO 10-24
- L 84-96 at OKC 10-22
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 5 | 31.2 | 23 | 23 | 7 | 5.6 |
| Damian Lillard | 5 | 29 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 4 | 3.6 |
| Toumani Camara | 5 | 26.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Ja Morant Out | 4 | 26 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Jrue Holiday | 5 | 24.6 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Donovan Clingan | 5 | 22.4 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 9 | 1.4 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 5 | 21.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| Scoot Henderson | 5 | 21.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 5 | 38.2 | 25.8 | 25.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Nikola Jokic | 5 | 37 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 9.8 | 9.2 |
| Christian Braun | 5 | 36 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Aaron Gordon | 5 | 30.2 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6 | 3 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 5 | 26.2 | 11 | 11 | 2.4 | 3 |
| Trevon Brazile | 5 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 0.2 |
| Cameron Johnson | 2 | 22.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Alpha Diallo Out | 1 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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