NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · Moda Center
San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. SA at POR.
San Antonio Spurs55%Leo win chance
Portland Trail Blazers45%Leo win chanceBoth have SA winning: Leo by 2, DraftKings by 5.5. They are 3.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: SA 116, POR 114 (total 230). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has SA by 2
- Injuries: POR is missing more, 1.9 pts toward SA.
- Team strength: SA rates 1.7 pts better than POR on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to POR.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to POR’s expected margin. Positive helps POR, negative helps SA.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -1.7 | POR rated +4.2, SA +6 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | POR played last night, SA played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | POR 1 day, SA 1 day (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -1.9 | Value of regulars on the injury report: POR 8.5, SA 0 |
| Leo’s margin | -1.8 | SA by 1.8 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Tobias Harris Out Calf Strain
- Jayden Quaintance Out Knee Surgery
- Vit Krejci Out Ankle · in Leo’s number, plays 10.3 min a game
- Ja Morant Out Hamstring Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 26 min a game
- Shaedon Sharpe Out Knee Surgery
Form
7-2 this season · 117.7 scored, 108.7 allowed a game
- W 124-109 at SAC 11-06
- W 112-111 vs DAL 11-04
- W 119-97 vs UTAH 11-02
- W 121-111 vs MIN 10-31
- W 117-111 at UTAH 10-28
6-2 this season · 121.4 scored, 112.4 allowed a game
- L 118-124 at LAL 11-06
- W 132-119 at PHX 11-04
- W 118-110 at DEN 11-02
- W 112-90 at UTAH 10-31
- L 103-124 vs MEM 10-29
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 9 | 32.3 | 18.7 | 19 | 5.2 | 4.4 |
| Devin Vassell | 9 | 31.2 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 4 | 3.1 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 9 | 31 | 29.1 | 34.6 | 12.6 | 3 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 9 | 30.3 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 4 | 5.9 |
| Stephon Castle | 9 | 29.4 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 5 |
| Julian Champagnie | 9 | 26 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| Keldon Johnson | 9 | 23 | 8 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 |
| Luke Kornet | 9 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 3 | 4.2 | 0.9 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 8 | 33.1 | 23.3 | 23.8 | 6.8 | 7 |
| Damian Lillard | 8 | 30.6 | 20.4 | 19.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Toumani Camara | 8 | 28 | 14.3 | 13 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Jrue Holiday | 8 | 26.6 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 4 | 4.5 |
| Ja Morant Out | 4 | 26 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Donovan Clingan | 8 | 25.1 | 12.6 | 14.6 | 10.6 | 1.5 |
| Scoot Henderson | 8 | 22.3 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 8 | 21.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
Keep reading
All NBA predictions for November 7 →Every game that night: Leo's win chance, spread, picks and leansTonight’s NBA predictions · Every NBA game · Leo’s NBA record · NBA injury tracker · NBA team stats · Free card by email