NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Mortgage Matchup Center
Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. POR at PHX.
Portland Trail Blazers58%Leo win chance
Phoenix Suns42%Leo win chanceBoth have POR winning: Leo by 2.5, DraftKings by 2.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: POR 115, PHX 112 (total 227). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has POR by 2.5
- Team strength: POR rates 6.0 pts better than PHX on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to PHX.
- Injuries: POR is missing more, 1.5 pts toward PHX.
What could still move it. Jordan Goodwin (PHX, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.6 toward POR; if he plays, 0.4 toward PHX.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to PHX’s expected margin. Positive helps PHX, negative helps POR.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -6.0 | PHX rated -2.3, POR +4.1 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | PHX 2 days, POR 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +1.5 | Value of regulars on the injury report: PHX 1.7, POR 8.5 |
| Leo’s margin | -2.8 | POR by 2.8 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Ja Morant Out Hamstring Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 26 min a game
- Shaedon Sharpe Out Knee Surgery
- Jordan Goodwin Day to day Calf Not Specified · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 18.8 min a game
- Rasheer Fleming Day to day Ankle Sprain
- Mark Williams Out Shoulder Surgery
Form
5-1 this season · 120.2 scored, 109.3 allowed a game
- W 118-110 at DEN 11-02
- W 112-90 at UTAH 10-31
- L 103-124 vs MEM 10-29
- W 136-129 at LAL 10-27
- W 128-120 at SAC 10-23
1-4 this season · 112.2 scored, 122.8 allowed a game
- L 113-116 at GS 11-02
- L 120-127 vs DEN 10-30
- L 114-125 at OKC 10-26
- W 131-122 vs GS 10-24
- L 83-124 at POR 10-21
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 6 | 31.8 | 23.8 | 25 | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| Damian Lillard | 6 | 29.2 | 19.3 | 18.2 | 4.3 | 4 |
| Toumani Camara | 6 | 27 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Ja Morant Out | 4 | 26 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Jrue Holiday | 6 | 25.7 | 13.2 | 14.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Donovan Clingan | 6 | 24 | 10 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 1.7 |
| Scoot Henderson | 6 | 22.2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 6 | 21.8 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 5 | 34.6 | 23 | 23 | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| Miles Bridges | 5 | 33.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 7 | 2.4 |
| Dillon Brooks | 5 | 29.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 4 | 3.2 |
| Jalen Green | 5 | 28.6 | 11 | 11 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Collin Gillespie | 5 | 25.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 2 | 5 |
| Khaman Maluach | 5 | 20.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 6 | 1 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 3 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Jordan Goodwin Day to day | 5 | 18.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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