NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET · Frost Bank Center
Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. UTAH at SA.
Utah Jazz15%Leo win chance
San Antonio Spurs85%Leo win chanceBoth have SA winning: Leo by 14.5, DraftKings by 16.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: UTAH 108, SA 123 (total 231). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has SA 85%, but the price is -1350, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has SA by 14.5
- Team strength: SA rates 11.3 pts better than UTAH on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to SA.
- Injuries: UTAH is missing more, 1.1 pts toward SA.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to SA’s expected margin. Positive helps SA, negative helps UTAH.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +11.3 | SA rated +5.6, UTAH -6.4 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | SA 2 days, UTAH 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +1.1 | Value of regulars on the injury report: SA 0, UTAH 4.9 |
| Leo’s margin | +14.1 | SA by 14.1 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
- Jaren Jackson Jr. Out Knee Not Specified · counted, 26 min a game
- Trey Alexander Out Knee Bruise
- Jusuf Nurkic Out Foot Strain
- Tobias Harris Out Calf Strain
- Jayden Quaintance Out Knee Surgery
Form
1-5 this season · 108.7 scored, 118.8 allowed a game
- L 90-112 vs POR 10-31
- L 111-117 vs SA 10-28
- L 105-110 vs MEM 10-26
- L 123-132 vs LAL 10-25
- W 120-119 vs NO 10-23
4-2 this season · 117.3 scored, 110.2 allowed a game
- W 121-111 vs MIN 10-31
- W 117-111 at UTAH 10-28
- W 130-103 vs SAC 10-27
- W 122-106 at DAL 10-24
- L 110-114 vs HOU 10-23
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | 6 | 32.2 | 21.7 | 21.6 | 3.8 | 6.3 |
| Ace Bailey | 6 | 31 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 2.2 |
| Darryn Peterson | 6 | 29.8 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 5 | 28.6 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. Out | 4 | 26 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 5 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 5 | 25.6 | 8 | 8 | 6.6 | 2.4 |
| Isaiah Collier | 6 | 18.7 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 4 | 5.7 |
| Mo Bamba | 3 | 18.7 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 5 | 0.7 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 6 | 33.3 | 18.5 | 18.6 | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 6 | 32.5 | 28 | 31.2 | 10.7 | 3 |
| Devin Vassell | 6 | 32.2 | 12 | 13 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 6 | 32 | 16.5 | 17 | 4.8 | 7 |
| Stephon Castle | 6 | 29.3 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Julian Champagnie | 6 | 28.2 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Keldon Johnson | 6 | 22.3 | 8.3 | 8 | 5.3 | 1.2 |
| Luke Kornet | 6 | 14.7 | 2.3 | 2 | 4.3 | 0.5 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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