NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · Golden 1 Center
San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. SA at SAC.
San Antonio Spurs80%Leo win chance
Sacramento Kings20%Leo win chanceProjected score: SA 121, SAC 109 (total 230). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has SA 80%, but the price is -1180, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has SA by 12
- Team strength: SA rates 13.4 pts better than SAC on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to SAC.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to SAC’s expected margin. Positive helps SAC, negative helps SA.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -13.4 | SAC rated -8.5, SA +5.7 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | SAC 2 days, SA 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | 0.0 | Value of regulars on the injury report: SAC 0, SA 0 |
| Leo’s margin | -11.7 | SA by 11.7 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Tobias Harris Out Calf Strain
- Jayden Quaintance Out Knee Surgery
- Maxime Raynaud Out Knee Dislocated
- Keegan Murray Out Ankle
- Ben Simmons Out Achilles Surgery
Form
6-2 this season · 116.9 scored, 108.6 allowed a game
- W 112-111 vs DAL 11-04
- W 119-97 vs UTAH 11-02
- W 121-111 vs MIN 10-31
- W 117-111 at UTAH 10-28
- W 130-103 vs SAC 10-27
1-7 this season · 109.3 scored, 123.3 allowed a game
- L 103-116 vs LAL 11-04
- W 115-100 at DAL 11-02
- L 105-136 at MEM 10-31
- L 120-132 at NO 10-29
- L 103-130 at SA 10-27
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 8 | 32.9 | 18.6 | 17.8 | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Devin Vassell | 8 | 31.8 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 8 | 31.6 | 29 | 34.4 | 12.4 | 3.1 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 8 | 30.9 | 15.1 | 13.8 | 4.3 | 6.1 |
| Stephon Castle | 8 | 29.6 | 15 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| Julian Champagnie | 8 | 26.5 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| Keldon Johnson | 8 | 22.5 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
| Luke Kornet | 8 | 14.9 | 3 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.9 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 8 | 37.3 | 25.6 | 27.6 | 3.8 | 7 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 8 | 36.1 | 15.1 | 13 | 14.9 | 6.1 |
| Zach LaVine | 8 | 33.4 | 23.1 | 19.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 8 | 31.3 | 13 | 17.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 8 | 27.3 | 11 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| Keegan Murray Out | 2 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0.5 |
| Leaky Black | 3 | 18.3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 4 | 17.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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