NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 9:30 PM ET · Frost Bank Center
Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. DAL at SA.
Dallas Mavericks27%Leo win chance
San Antonio Spurs73%Leo win chanceBoth have SA winning: Leo by 9, DraftKings by 12.5. They are 3.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: DAL 109, SA 118 (total 227). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has SA 73%, but the price is -620, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has SA by 9
- Team strength: SA rates 6.6 pts better than DAL on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to SA.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to SA’s expected margin. Positive helps SA, negative helps DAL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +6.6 | SA rated +6.2, DAL -0.9 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | SA 2 days, DAL 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.2 | Value of regulars on the injury report: SA 0, DAL 1 |
| Leo’s margin | +8.6 | SA by 8.6 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Santi Aldama Out Knee Surgery
- Max Christie Out Hip Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 23.9 min a game
- Tarik Biberovic Out Heel Inflammation
- Dereck Lively II Out Foot Surgery
- Sergio de Larrea Out Knee Strain · in Leo’s number, plays 11.8 min a game
- Tobias Harris Out Calf Strain
- Jayden Quaintance Out Knee Surgery
Form
4-3 this season · 112.3 scored, 112.3 allowed a game
- L 100-115 vs SAC 11-02
- W 116-111 vs HOU 10-30
- W 120-96 vs OKC 10-28
- W 113-109 at MIA 10-26
- L 106-122 vs SA 10-24
5-2 this season · 117.6 scored, 108.3 allowed a game
- W 119-97 vs UTAH 11-02
- W 121-111 vs MIN 10-31
- W 117-111 at UTAH 10-28
- W 130-103 vs SAC 10-27
- W 122-106 at DAL 10-24
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 7 | 34.3 | 13.6 | 13 | 7.7 | 1.1 |
| Cooper Flagg | 6 | 33.7 | 25.2 | 23.8 | 5.7 | 6.5 |
| Kyrie Irving | 5 | 28.8 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 7 | 28.1 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 1.6 |
| Naji Marshall | 4 | 26.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 3 | 6 |
| Daniel Gafford | 7 | 24 | 10.1 | 13 | 7 | 2.1 |
| Max Christie Out | 7 | 23.9 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| Caleb Martin | 3 | 20 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 7 | 32.4 | 18.3 | 18 | 5.7 | 5.3 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 7 | 31.3 | 25.7 | 28.6 | 10.7 | 3.3 |
| Devin Vassell | 7 | 31.1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 7 | 30.6 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 4.4 | 6.4 |
| Stephon Castle | 7 | 28.9 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 5 |
| Julian Champagnie | 7 | 27.3 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| Keldon Johnson | 7 | 23 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 1.1 |
| Luke Kornet | 7 | 15 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 0.7 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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