NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Mortgage Matchup Center
San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. SA at PHX.
San Antonio Spurs69%Leo win chance
Phoenix Suns31%Leo win chanceBoth have SA winning: Leo by 7, DraftKings by 8.5. They are 1.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: SA 117, PHX 110 (total 227). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has SA 69%, but the price is -359, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has SA by 7
- Team strength: SA rates 8.1 pts better than PHX on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to PHX.
- Injuries: PHX is missing more, 0.5 pts toward SA.
What could still move it. Devin Vassell (SA, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.6 toward PHX; if he plays, 0.4 toward SA.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to PHX’s expected margin. Positive helps PHX, negative helps SA.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -8.1 | PHX rated -1.1, SA +7.4 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | PHX 2 days, SA 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.5 | Value of regulars on the injury report: PHX 4.2, SA 1.8 |
| Leo’s margin | -6.9 | SA by 6.9 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Tobias Harris Out Calf Strain
- Devin Vassell Day to day Groin · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 30.2 min a game
- Jayden Quaintance Out Knee Surgery
- Jordan Goodwin Out Calf Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 18.8 min a game
- Mark Williams Out Shoulder Surgery
Form
8-2 this season · 118.4 scored, 108.1 allowed a game
- W 125-103 at POR 11-07
- W 124-109 at SAC 11-06
- W 112-111 vs DAL 11-04
- W 119-97 vs UTAH 11-02
- W 121-111 vs MIN 10-31
3-5 this season · 112.4 scored, 118.6 allowed a game
- W 102-99 vs HOU 11-07
- W 117-104 vs ORL 11-05
- L 119-132 vs POR 11-04
- L 113-116 at GS 11-02
- L 120-127 vs DEN 10-30
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 10 | 31.9 | 18.1 | 19 | 5.4 | 4.3 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 10 | 30.3 | 29.1 | 33.2 | 12 | 3 |
| Devin Vassell Day to day | 10 | 30.2 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 10 | 29.5 | 13.8 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 5.9 |
| Stephon Castle | 10 | 28.9 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 5 |
| Julian Champagnie | 10 | 25.5 | 10 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 |
| Keldon Johnson | 10 | 23.4 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Luke Kornet | 10 | 15.2 | 3.2 | 4 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 8 | 35 | 25.3 | 26.6 | 2.8 | 4.9 |
| Miles Bridges | 8 | 32.4 | 16.9 | 18.8 | 8.1 | 3.6 |
| Dillon Brooks | 8 | 31.3 | 16.8 | 18 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| Jalen Green | 8 | 29.1 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| Collin Gillespie | 8 | 24.5 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 4.1 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 6 | 21.7 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| Khaman Maluach | 8 | 19.6 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 1.1 |
| Jordan Goodwin Out | 5 | 18.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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