NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · Chase Center
Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. PHX at GS.
Phoenix Suns50%Leo win chance
Golden State Warriors50%Leo win chanceProjected score: PHX 115, GS 115 (total 230). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has a pick'em
- Team strength: GS rates 4.6 pts better than PHX on results so far.
- Injuries: GS is missing more, 4.1 pts toward PHX.
- Back to back: GS played last night, 2.0 pts toward PHX.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to GS.
What could still move it. Gui Santos (GS, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward PHX; if he plays, 0.2 toward GS.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to GS’s expected margin. Positive helps GS, negative helps PHX.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +4.6 | GS rated +2.3, PHX -2.6 points against an average team |
| Back to back | -2.0 | GS played last night |
| Rest | -0.3 | GS 1 day, PHX 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -4.1 | Value of regulars on the injury report: GS 18.6, PHX 0 |
| Leo’s margin | 0 | GS by 0 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
- Mark Williams Out Shoulder Surgery
- Gui Santos Day to day Knee · counted, 18.7 min a game
- Draymond Green Out Rest · counted, 23.8 min a game
- Stephen Curry Out Rest · counted, 28.2 min a game
- Kristaps Porzingis Out Illness
- Moses Moody Out Knee Surgery
- Jimmy Butler III Out Knee Surgery
Form
1-3 this season · 112 scored, 124.5 allowed a game
- L 120-127 vs DEN 10-30
- L 114-125 at OKC 10-26
- W 131-122 vs GS 10-24
- L 83-124 at POR 10-21
4-3 this season · 117.7 scored, 114.9 allowed a game
- W 124-112 vs LAC 11-01
- W 112-95 vs LAL 10-30
- W 119-114 at MIN 10-28
- W 134-114 at DEN 10-26
- L 122-131 at PHX 10-24
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 4 | 34.5 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 |
| Miles Bridges | 4 | 32.8 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 7.3 | 2.3 |
| Dillon Brooks | 4 | 28.8 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 3 | 3 |
| Jalen Green | 4 | 26.8 | 11 | 11 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Collin Gillespie | 4 | 26.3 | 9 | 9 | 2.3 | 5.8 |
| Khaman Maluach | 4 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1.3 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 4 | 21 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 2 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 4 | 32.8 | 16.3 | 16.4 | 4.8 | 5 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 6 | 32 | 19.8 | 25.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 |
| Draymond Green Out | 5 | 28.6 | 3 | 3 | 5.2 | 7.2 |
| Stephen Curry Out | 5 | 28.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 3.8 | 4 |
| Gui Santos Day to day | 5 | 22.4 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 6 | 21.3 | 10.3 | 14.6 | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| Georges Niang | 6 | 19.3 | 7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| Al Horford | 5 | 18 | 4.2 | 6 | 3.8 | 0.8 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
Keep reading
All NBA predictions for November 2 →Every game that night: Leo's win chance, spread, picks and leansTonight’s NBA predictions · Every NBA game · Leo’s NBA record · NBA injury tracker · NBA team stats · Free card by email