NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Mortgage Matchup Center
Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. HOU at PHX.
Houston Rockets72%Leo win chance
Phoenix Suns28%Leo win chanceBoth have HOU winning: Leo by 8, DraftKings by 6.5. They are 1.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: HOU 118, PHX 110 (total 228). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has HOU 72%, but the price is -270, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has HOU by 8
- Team strength: HOU rates 9.2 pts better than PHX on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to PHX.
What could still move it. Jordan Goodwin (PHX, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.6 toward HOU; if he plays, 0.4 toward PHX.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to PHX’s expected margin. Positive helps PHX, negative helps HOU.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -9.2 | PHX rated -1.8, HOU +8 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | -0.1 | PHX 2 days, HOU 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.4 | Value of regulars on the injury report: PHX 1.7, HOU 0 |
| Leo’s margin | -8 | HOU by 8 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Clint Capela Out Ankle Sprain
- Steven Adams Out Calf Strain
- Rasheer Fleming Day to day Ankle Sprain
- Jordan Goodwin Day to day Calf Not Specified · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 18.8 min a game
- Mark Williams Out Shoulder Surgery
Form
7-2 this season · 117.9 scored, 107.6 allowed a game
- L 107-117 vs MIN 11-04
- W 109-93 vs BOS 11-02
- W 119-98 vs OKC 10-31
- L 111-116 at DAL 10-30
- W 132-100 at MIL 10-28
2-5 this season · 113.9 scored, 121.4 allowed a game
- W 117-104 vs ORL 11-05
- L 119-132 vs POR 11-04
- L 113-116 at GS 11-02
- L 120-127 vs DEN 10-30
- L 114-125 at OKC 10-26
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun | 7 | 35.1 | 22.4 | 21 | 9.1 | 8.1 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 9 | 34.6 | 17.6 | 18.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 |
| Kevin Durant | 9 | 33.8 | 20.8 | 18.6 | 5.2 | 3 |
| Amen Thompson | 9 | 32.6 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 |
| Fred VanVleet | 7 | 30 | 13 | 14.2 | 3.6 | 6.3 |
| Tari Eason | 9 | 24.6 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 1.2 |
| Marcus Smart | 6 | 23 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Reed Sheppard | 6 | 21.8 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 7 | 34.4 | 25.4 | 22.4 | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| Miles Bridges | 7 | 32.6 | 17.4 | 19.6 | 7.9 | 3.1 |
| Dillon Brooks | 7 | 30.4 | 17.6 | 19.6 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| Jalen Green | 7 | 28.4 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Collin Gillespie | 7 | 25.1 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 4.1 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 5 | 21.4 | 7 | 7 | 5.2 | 3.6 |
| Khaman Maluach | 7 | 19.9 | 7.3 | 8 | 6 | 1.3 |
| Jordan Goodwin Day to day | 5 | 18.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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