NBA · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Mortgage Matchup Center
Orlando Magic vs Phoenix Suns: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. ORL at PHX.
Orlando Magic52%Leo win chance
Phoenix Suns48%Leo win chanceDifferent winners: Leo has ORL by 0.5; DraftKings has PHX by 1.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: ORL 113, PHX 113 (total 226). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has ORL by 0.5
- Back to back: PHX played last night, 2.0 pts toward ORL.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to PHX.
What could still move it. Jordan Goodwin (PHX, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.6 toward ORL; if he plays, 0.4 toward PHX.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to PHX’s expected margin. Positive helps PHX, negative helps ORL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +0.2 | PHX rated -2.7, ORL -3 points against an average team |
| Back to back | -2.0 | PHX played last night |
| Rest | -0.3 | PHX 1 day, ORL 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.3 | Value of regulars on the injury report: PHX 1.7, ORL 0.3 |
| Leo’s margin | -0.6 | ORL by 0.6 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Jonathan Isaac Out Knee Not Specified
- Jalen Suggs Out Knee · in Leo’s number, plays 33.3 min a game
- Paolo Banchero Out Ankle Sprain
- Noah Penda Out Hamstring Strain
- Izaiyah Nelson Out Ankle Surgery
- Jordan Goodwin Day to day Calf Not Specified · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 18.8 min a game
- Rasheer Fleming Day to day Ankle Sprain
- Mark Williams Out Shoulder Surgery
Form
2-5 this season · 105.7 scored, 114.7 allowed a game
- L 94-103 vs WSH 11-02
- L 97-108 vs BOS 11-01
- W 121-114 at TOR 10-30
- L 99-129 at TOR 10-28
- W 111-102 at NY 10-25
1-5 this season · 113.3 scored, 124.3 allowed a game
- L 119-132 vs POR 11-04
- L 113-116 at GS 11-02
- L 120-127 vs DEN 10-30
- L 114-125 at OKC 10-26
- W 131-122 vs GS 10-24
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | 7 | 35.7 | 20.3 | 20.4 | 6.1 | 7.6 |
| Desmond Bane | 7 | 34.9 | 17.9 | 20.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Paolo Banchero Out | 2 | 33.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| Jalen Suggs Out | 3 | 33.3 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5.7 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 7 | 32.4 | 12.4 | 9 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Tristan da Silva | 7 | 29.3 | 14.1 | 16 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| Anthony Black | 4 | 28 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Jase Richardson | 7 | 21 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 6 | 34.5 | 24.7 | 25 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| Miles Bridges | 6 | 32.8 | 17.3 | 19.2 | 7 | 2.8 |
| Dillon Brooks | 6 | 30.7 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Jalen Green | 6 | 29.2 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Collin Gillespie | 6 | 25.3 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 4.5 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 4 | 20.8 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| Khaman Maluach | 6 | 19.5 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Jordan Goodwin Day to day | 5 | 18.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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