NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · Chase Center
New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. NO at GS.
New Orleans Pelicans26%Leo win chance
Golden State Warriors74%Leo win chanceBoth have GS winning: Leo by 8.5, DraftKings by 8.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: NO 114, GS 123 (total 237). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has GS 74%, but the price is -382, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has GS by 8.5
- Team strength: GS rates 5.1 pts better than NO on results so far.
- Back to back: NO played last night, 2.0 pts toward GS.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to GS.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to GS’s expected margin. Positive helps GS, negative helps NO.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +5.1 | GS rated +3.2, NO -2.2 points against an average team |
| Back to back | +2.0 | NO played last night |
| Rest | +0.1 | GS 2 days, NO 1 day (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.3 | Value of regulars on the injury report: GS 1.3, NO 0 |
| Leo’s margin | +8.8 | GS by 8.8 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Yves Missi Out Knee Bruise
- Will Richard Out Thumb · in Leo’s number, plays 17.1 min a game
- Gui Santos Day to day Knee Tendinitis · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 16.6 min a game
- Kristaps Porzingis Out Illness
- Moses Moody Out Knee Surgery
- Jimmy Butler III Out Knee Surgery
Form
4-6 this season · 120.5 scored, 120.8 allowed a game
- L 123-139 at LAC 11-08
- L 109-115 vs MIN 11-06
- W 120-113 vs UTAH 11-04
- W 135-134 at MEM 11-02
- W 121-99 vs ATL 10-31
7-3 this season · 118.6 scored, 113.6 allowed a game
- W 126-119 vs ORL 11-07
- W 120-100 vs MIA 11-05
- W 116-113 vs PHX 11-02
- W 124-112 vs LAC 11-01
- W 112-95 vs LAL 10-30
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | 7 | 33.9 | 14.9 | 13 | 5.1 | 5 |
| Zion Williamson | 10 | 33.1 | 21 | 20.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| Trey Murphy III | 9 | 32.8 | 15.6 | 17.6 | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 10 | 28.9 | 15.8 | 20 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Saddiq Bey | 10 | 26.9 | 16.1 | 19 | 4 | 2.2 |
| Herbert Jones | 10 | 22.6 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| Derik Queen | 10 | 22.4 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 |
| Yves Missi Out | 2 | 19.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 8 | 34 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 10 | 32.2 | 21.2 | 19.8 | 7.2 | 4 |
| Stephen Curry | 8 | 29.8 | 31.3 | 35.8 | 4 | 4.6 |
| Draymond Green | 8 | 27.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 7.8 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 10 | 21.8 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| Georges Niang | 10 | 20.6 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 3 | 1.6 |
| Gui Santos Day to day | 7 | 19 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| Al Horford | 8 | 17.9 | 5 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
Keep reading
All NBA predictions for November 9 →Every game that night: Leo's win chance, spread, picks and leansTonight’s NBA predictions · Every NBA game · Leo’s NBA record · NBA injury tracker · NBA team stats · Free card by email