NBA · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · Chase Center
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. MIA at GS.
Miami Heat31%Leo win chance
Golden State Warriors69%Leo win chanceBoth have GS winning: Leo by 7, DraftKings by 7.5. They are 0.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: MIA 116, GS 123 (total 239). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has GS 69%, but the price is -279, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has GS by 7
- Team strength: GS rates 3.3 pts better than MIA on results so far.
- Back to back: MIA played last night, 2.0 pts toward GS.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to GS.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to GS’s expected margin. Positive helps GS, negative helps MIA.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +3.3 | GS rated +2.2, MIA -1.3 points against an average team |
| Back to back | +2.0 | MIA played last night |
| Rest | +0.3 | GS 3 days, MIA 1 day (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.4 | Value of regulars on the injury report: GS 1.7, MIA 0 |
| Leo’s margin | +6.9 | GS by 6.9 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
Nobody listed.
- Gui Santos Out Knee · in Leo’s number, plays 17.3 min a game
- Kristaps Porzingis Out Illness
- Moses Moody Out Knee Surgery
- Jimmy Butler III Out Knee Surgery
Form
3-5 this season · 118 scored, 122.9 allowed a game
- W 117-116 at LAC 11-04
- L 117-138 at LAL 11-02
- W 145-125 vs IND 10-30
- W 129-117 at ATL 10-28
- L 109-113 vs DAL 10-26
5-3 this season · 117.5 scored, 114.6 allowed a game
- W 116-113 vs PHX 11-02
- W 124-112 vs LAC 11-01
- W 112-95 vs LAL 10-30
- W 119-114 at MIN 10-28
- W 134-114 at DEN 10-26
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 8 | 34.6 | 15.4 | 14.4 | 1.5 | 8.3 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 8 | 33 | 28.3 | 28.2 | 12.5 | 5.8 |
| Bam Adebayo | 8 | 32.6 | 18.6 | 22 | 8.3 | 3.5 |
| Pelle Larsson | 8 | 30.4 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 8 | 26.4 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| Klay Thompson | 8 | 23.4 | 14.1 | 16.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Bobby Portis | 8 | 21.6 | 8.3 | 7 | 7.1 | 2.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8 | 17 | 5.8 | 6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 6 | 33.5 | 17 | 16.8 | 5 | 5 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 8 | 31.9 | 21.5 | 23.2 | 7 | 3.9 |
| Stephen Curry | 6 | 29 | 30 | 31.4 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Draymond Green | 6 | 26.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5 | 6.3 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 8 | 23 | 10.6 | 10 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| Gui Santos Out | 6 | 20.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 4 | 1.3 |
| Georges Niang | 8 | 19.9 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Al Horford | 6 | 18.7 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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