NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET · Chase Center
Orlando Magic vs Golden State Warriors: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. ORL at GS.
Orlando Magic29%Leo win chance
Golden State Warriors71%Leo win chanceBoth have GS winning: Leo by 7.5, DraftKings by 5.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: ORL 108, GS 116 (total 224). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has GS by 7.5
- Team strength: GS rates 6.2 pts better than ORL on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to GS.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to GS’s expected margin. Positive helps GS, negative helps ORL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +6.2 | GS rated +3.1, ORL -3.5 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | GS 2 days, ORL 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.1 | Value of regulars on the injury report: GS 0.9, ORL 0.3 |
| Leo’s margin | +7.8 | GS by 7.8 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Jonathan Isaac Out Knee Not Specified
- Jalen Suggs Out Knee · in Leo’s number, plays 33.3 min a game
- Paolo Banchero Out Ankle Sprain
- Noah Penda Out Hamstring Strain
- Izaiyah Nelson Out Ankle Surgery
- Draymond Green Day to day Elbow Inflammation · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 23.4 min a game
- Gary Payton II Day to day Calf · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 13.4 min a game
- Kristaps Porzingis Out Illness
- Gui Santos Day to day Knee · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 17.3 min a game
- Moses Moody Out Knee Surgery
- Jimmy Butler III Out Knee Surgery
Form
2-6 this season · 105.5 scored, 115 allowed a game
- L 104-117 at PHX 11-05
- L 94-103 vs WSH 11-02
- L 97-108 vs BOS 11-01
- W 121-114 at TOR 10-30
- L 99-129 at TOR 10-28
6-3 this season · 117.8 scored, 113 allowed a game
- W 120-100 vs MIA 11-05
- W 116-113 vs PHX 11-02
- W 124-112 vs LAC 11-01
- W 112-95 vs LAL 10-30
- W 119-114 at MIN 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | 8 | 36 | 19.6 | 18.8 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| Desmond Bane | 8 | 34.5 | 17.5 | 19 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Paolo Banchero Out | 2 | 33.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| Jalen Suggs Out | 3 | 33.3 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5.7 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 8 | 32.6 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 1.1 |
| Tristan da Silva | 8 | 29.4 | 14.6 | 15.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Anthony Black | 5 | 28.6 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 5.2 | 5 |
| Jase Richardson | 8 | 21.6 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 7 | 33.3 | 15.9 | 15 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 9 | 31.7 | 21 | 20.4 | 7.1 | 4.1 |
| Stephen Curry | 7 | 28.9 | 29.9 | 32.4 | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Draymond Green Day to day | 7 | 26.7 | 3 | 2.8 | 5 | 7 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 9 | 22.3 | 10 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 2.2 |
| Gui Santos Day to day | 6 | 20.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 4 | 1.3 |
| Georges Niang | 9 | 20.1 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| Al Horford | 7 | 18.6 | 5.4 | 7 | 4.1 | 1 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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