NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · FedExForum
New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. NO at MEM.
New Orleans Pelicans30%Leo win chance
Memphis Grizzlies70%Leo win chanceBoth have MEM winning: Leo by 7, DraftKings by 6.5. They are 0.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: NO 113, MEM 120 (total 233). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has MEM by 7
- Team strength: MEM rates 5.0 pts better than NO on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to MEM.
- Injuries: NO is missing more, 0.5 pts toward MEM.
What could still move it. Quinten Post (MEM, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward NO; if he plays, 0.2 toward MEM. Trey Murphy III (NO, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.6 toward MEM; if he plays, 0.4 toward NO.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to MEM’s expected margin. Positive helps MEM, negative helps NO.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +5.0 | MEM rated +3.1, NO -2.2 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | MEM 2 days, NO 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.5 | Value of regulars on the injury report: MEM 1.7, NO 3.9 |
| Leo’s margin | +7.2 | MEM by 7.2 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
- Trey Murphy III Day to day Knee Not Specified · counted, 31.8 min a game
- Jordan Poole Out Ankle Sprain · counted, 16 min a game
- Yves Missi Out Knee Bruise
- Scotty Pippen Jr. Day to day Back Soreness · counted, 16.2 min a game
- Quinten Post Day to day Ankle Not Specified · counted, 15 min a game
Form
2-4 this season · 119.7 scored, 117.8 allowed a game
- W 121-99 vs ATL 10-31
- W 132-120 vs SAC 10-29
- L 91-104 vs DEN 10-28
- L 135-141 at DEN 10-24
- L 119-120 at UTAH 10-23
6-0 this season · 121.2 scored, 106 allowed a game
- W 136-105 vs SAC 10-31
- W 124-103 at POR 10-29
- W 110-105 at UTAH 10-26
- W 123-112 at SAC 10-25
- W 111-108 at GS 10-23
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | 4 | 32.3 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 5.8 | 6 |
| Zion Williamson | 6 | 31.8 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| Trey Murphy III Day to day | 6 | 31.8 | 14.3 | 15 | 4.5 | 3.2 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 6 | 25.3 | 13 | 14 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Saddiq Bey | 6 | 24.5 | 15.2 | 15.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| Derik Queen | 6 | 23.7 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 2.2 |
| Herbert Jones | 6 | 21.2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| Yves Missi Out | 2 | 19.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 6 | 31 | 17.3 | 19.4 | 10.5 | 5.7 |
| Ty Jerome | 5 | 30 | 25.8 | 25.8 | 3.2 | 5.8 |
| Cedric Coward | 5 | 28.2 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 2.4 |
| Jaylen Wells | 6 | 27.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jerami Grant | 6 | 24.3 | 9.2 | 8 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Zach Edey | 5 | 20.2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| Javon Small | 1 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| Cam Spencer | 6 | 19.2 | 8.8 | 10 | 3.8 | 5 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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