NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Smoothie King Center
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. MIN at NO.
Minnesota Timberwolves59%Leo win chance
New Orleans Pelicans41%Leo win chanceBoth have MIN winning: Leo by 3.5, DraftKings by 3.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: MIN 118, NO 115 (total 233). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has MIN by 3.5
- Team strength: MIN rates 8.2 pts better than NO on results so far.
- Injuries: MIN is missing more, 3.3 pts toward NO.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to NO.
What could still move it. Trey Murphy III (NO, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.7 toward MIN; if he plays, 0.5 toward NO. Terrence Shannon Jr. (MIN, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.6 toward NO; if he plays, 0.4 toward MIN.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to NO’s expected margin. Positive helps NO, negative helps MIN.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -8.2 | NO rated -1.4, MIN +7.3 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | NO 2 days, MIN 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +3.3 | Value of regulars on the injury report: NO 2, MIN 16.8 |
| Leo’s margin | -3.2 | MIN by 3.2 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Terrence Shannon Jr. Day to day Hip Bruise · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 22 min a game
- Anthony Edwards Out Knee Surgery · in Leo’s number, plays 33.8 min a game
- Donte DiVincenzo Out Achilles Surgery
- Yves Missi Out Knee Bruise
- Trey Murphy III Day to day Knee · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 33 min a game
Form
6-3 this season · 118.8 scored, 107.6 allowed a game
- W 117-107 at HOU 11-04
- W 112-100 vs MIL 11-02
- L 111-121 at SA 10-31
- W 127-101 vs LAC 10-30
- L 114-119 vs GS 10-28
4-4 this season · 121.6 scored, 119.3 allowed a game
- W 120-113 vs UTAH 11-04
- W 135-134 at MEM 11-02
- W 121-99 vs ATL 10-31
- W 132-120 vs SAC 10-29
- L 91-104 vs DEN 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards Out | 4 | 33.8 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 9 | 33.3 | 16.4 | 17.6 | 6.2 | 3.6 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 9 | 30.9 | 12.7 | 13.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 9 | 30.7 | 16.3 | 19.8 | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| Rudy Gobert | 8 | 30.5 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 11.9 | 1.5 |
| LaMelo Ball | 9 | 26.8 | 17.2 | 19.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. Day to day | 7 | 22 | 12 | 12.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Joan Beringer | 9 | 17.6 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 0.8 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | 5 | 34.8 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 6.2 | 5.6 |
| Zion Williamson | 8 | 33 | 21.5 | 22 | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| Trey Murphy III Day to day | 7 | 33 | 14.9 | 16.8 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 8 | 28 | 13.6 | 16.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Saddiq Bey | 8 | 26.5 | 16.4 | 16.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Derik Queen | 8 | 24.1 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 7.9 | 3 |
| Herbert Jones | 8 | 24 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 3 | 1 |
| Yves Missi Out | 2 | 19.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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