NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Smoothie King Center
Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. UTAH at NO.
Utah Jazz31%Leo win chance
New Orleans Pelicans69%Leo win chanceBoth have NO winning: Leo by 7, DraftKings by 6.5. They are 0.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: UTAH 115, NO 122 (total 237). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has NO 69%, but the price is -230, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has NO by 7
- Team strength: NO rates 4.8 pts better than UTAH on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to NO.
- Injuries: UTAH is missing more, 0.5 pts toward NO.
What could still move it. Trey Murphy III (NO, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.7 toward UTAH; if he plays, 0.5 toward NO. Mo Bamba (UTAH, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.5 toward NO; if he plays, 0.3 toward UTAH.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to NO’s expected margin. Positive helps NO, negative helps UTAH.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +4.8 | NO rated -1.6, UTAH -6.7 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | NO 2 days, UTAH 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.5 | Value of regulars on the injury report: NO 4.2, UTAH 6.4 |
| Leo’s margin | +7 | NO by 7 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Jusuf Nurkic Out Foot Strain
- Mo Bamba Day to day Ankle · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 10.6 min a game
- Jaren Jackson Jr. Out Knee Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 26 min a game
- Trey Alexander Out Knee Bruise
- Jordan Poole Out Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number, plays 16 min a game
- Trey Murphy III Day to day Knee · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 33 min a game
- Yves Missi Out Knee Bruise
Form
1-6 this season · 107 scored, 118.9 allowed a game
- L 97-119 at SA 11-02
- L 90-112 vs POR 10-31
- L 111-117 vs SA 10-28
- L 105-110 vs MEM 10-26
- L 123-132 vs LAL 10-25
3-4 this season · 121.9 scored, 120.1 allowed a game
- W 135-134 at MEM 11-02
- W 121-99 vs ATL 10-31
- W 132-120 vs SAC 10-29
- L 91-104 vs DEN 10-28
- L 135-141 at DEN 10-24
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | 7 | 30.7 | 19.6 | 19.2 | 4.3 | 5.4 |
| Darryn Peterson | 7 | 30.3 | 13.4 | 14 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Ace Bailey | 7 | 30 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.1 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 6 | 29 | 16.5 | 16.2 | 6 | 1.8 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. Out | 4 | 26 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 5 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 6 | 25 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Mo Bamba Day to day | 4 | 18.5 | 9 | 9 | 5.8 | 0.5 |
| Isaiah Collier | 7 | 17.7 | 7.4 | 7 | 3.7 | 5.1 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III Day to day | 7 | 33 | 14.9 | 16.8 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Zion Williamson | 7 | 32.3 | 21.3 | 20.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| Dejounte Murray | 4 | 32.3 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 5.8 | 6 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 7 | 27.1 | 12.9 | 15 | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| Saddiq Bey | 7 | 26.1 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| Derik Queen | 7 | 23.7 | 12.4 | 13 | 7.7 | 2.6 |
| Herbert Jones | 7 | 22.1 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Yves Missi Out | 2 | 19.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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