NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · American Airlines Center
Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. IND at DAL.
Indiana Pacers26%Leo win chance
Dallas Mavericks74%Leo win chanceProjected score: IND 108, DAL 117 (total 225). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has DAL by 9
- Team strength: DAL rates 6.4 pts better than IND on results so far.
- Injuries: IND is missing more, 3.1 pts toward DAL.
- Back to back: DAL played last night, 2.0 pts toward IND.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to DAL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to DAL’s expected margin. Positive helps DAL, negative helps IND.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +6.4 | DAL rated +1.7, IND -5.2 points against an average team |
| Back to back | -2.0 | DAL played last night |
| Rest | -0.1 | DAL 1 day, IND 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +3.1 | Value of regulars on the injury report: DAL 1, IND 14.9 |
| Leo’s margin | +9.1 | DAL by 9.1 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- T.J. McConnell Day to day Hamstring Strain
- Tyrese Haliburton Out Hamstring Strain · in Leo’s number, plays 33 min a game
- Johnny Furphy Out Knee Surgery
- Ben Sheppard Out Knee
- Sergio de Larrea Out Knee Strain · in Leo’s number, plays 11.8 min a game
- Tarik Biberovic Out Heel Inflammation
- Dereck Lively II Out Foot Surgery
Form
3-7 this season · 110.3 scored, 114.2 allowed a game
- L 102-114 vs DEN 11-07
- W 107-103 at MEM 11-04
- L 104-108 vs ATL 11-02
- L 90-98 vs BKN 11-01
- L 125-145 at MIA 10-30
6-4 this season · 113.9 scored, 109.1 allowed a game
- W 130-93 vs BKN 11-08
- W 112-100 vs UTAH 11-06
- L 111-112 at SA 11-04
- L 100-115 vs SAC 11-02
- W 116-111 vs HOU 10-30
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard | 8 | 33.1 | 17.8 | 18.8 | 2 | 7 |
| Tyrese Haliburton Out | 4 | 33 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 4.5 | 9.5 |
| Pascal Siakam | 9 | 32 | 21.4 | 19.8 | 6.6 | 3.9 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 8 | 24.4 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Jarace Walker | 10 | 23.6 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 8 | 22.4 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Obi Toppin | 7 | 22.3 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
| Quenton Jackson | 10 | 21.4 | 10 | 15 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 10 | 33.7 | 14.8 | 13.6 | 7.5 | 1.2 |
| Cooper Flagg | 9 | 33.7 | 24 | 23 | 6.6 | 7 |
| Kyrie Irving | 8 | 29.6 | 21.4 | 22.8 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 10 | 25.2 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 |
| Naji Marshall | 7 | 24.7 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 2.7 | 4.9 |
| Daniel Gafford | 10 | 22.3 | 9.8 | 13 | 5.9 | 1.9 |
| Max Christie | 9 | 21.4 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Caleb Martin | 6 | 18.3 | 4.2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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