NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. ATL at IND.
Atlanta Hawks76%Leo win chance
Indiana Pacers24%Leo win chanceProjected score: ATL 122, IND 112 (total 234). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has ATL by 9.5
- Team strength: ATL rates 6.8 pts better than IND on results so far.
- Injuries: IND is missing more, 2.6 pts toward ATL.
- Back to back: IND played last night, 2.0 pts toward ATL.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to IND.
What could still move it. Obi Toppin (IND, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.9 toward ATL; if he plays, 0.6 toward IND. Jalen Johnson (ATL, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.2 toward IND; if he plays, 0.8 toward ATL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to IND’s expected margin. Positive helps IND, negative helps ATL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -6.8 | IND rated -5.3, ATL +1.9 points against an average team |
| Back to back | -2.0 | IND played last night |
| Rest | -0.1 | IND 1 day, ATL 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -2.6 | Value of regulars on the injury report: IND 19.6, ATL 7.9 |
| Leo’s margin | -9.8 | ATL by 9.8 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
- Kingston Flemings Suspension Suspension · counted, 20.3 min a game
- Jalen Johnson Day to day Ankle · counted, 32.7 min a game
- Jock Landale Out Hip · counted, 15.3 min a game
- Mouhamed Gueye Out Foot Fracture
- Henri Veesaar Out Knee
- Obi Toppin Day to day Back Soreness · counted, 19.2 min a game
- T.J. McConnell Out Hamstring Strain
- Ivica Zubac Out Ankle Sprain · counted, 10.8 min a game
- Johnny Furphy Out Knee Surgery
- Ben Sheppard Out Knee
- Tyrese Haliburton Out Hamstring Strain · counted, 33 min a game
Form
3-4 this season · 116.3 scored, 115.4 allowed a game
- L 99-121 at NO 10-31
- W 114-111 vs CLE 10-29
- L 117-129 vs MIA 10-28
- L 110-120 at HOU 10-26
- L 114-121 vs HOU 10-24
2-5 this season · 112.9 scored, 116.7 allowed a game
- L 90-98 vs BKN 11-01
- L 125-145 at MIA 10-30
- L 109-114 vs PHI 10-28
- L 102-110 at MIL 10-26
- W 136-109 at BKN 10-25
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson Day to day | 7 | 32.7 | 18.3 | 17.8 | 9 | 7.9 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 7 | 30 | 19.3 | 18 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Dyson Daniels | 7 | 28.9 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 5 | 4.3 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 7 | 28.3 | 11.9 | 13 | 7.1 | 2.6 |
| CJ McCollum | 7 | 26 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 7 | 25.9 | 14.7 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| Luguentz Dort | 7 | 23.7 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Kingston Flemings Suspension | 7 | 20.3 | 7.1 | 9 | 2.9 | 4.7 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton Out | 4 | 33 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 4.5 | 9.5 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 5 | 32.2 | 17.6 | 18.6 | 2 | 8 |
| Pascal Siakam | 6 | 31.7 | 22.2 | 19.4 | 7.8 | 3.8 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 6 | 23.8 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Obi Toppin Day to day | 5 | 23 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 5.2 | 1.2 |
| Jarace Walker | 6 | 22.3 | 7 | 8.6 | 6 | 1.8 |
| Ivica Zubac Out | 3 | 21.7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 1.3 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 5 | 21.6 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 2 | 1.4 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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