NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · American Airlines Center
Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. SAC at DAL.
Sacramento Kings20%Leo win chance
Dallas Mavericks80%Leo win chanceBoth have DAL winning: Leo by 11.5, DraftKings by 9.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: SAC 110, DAL 122 (total 232). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has DAL 80%, but the price is -395, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has DAL by 11.5
- Team strength: DAL rates 10.2 pts better than SAC on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to DAL.
What could still move it. Kyrie Irving (DAL, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.5 toward SAC; if he plays, 1.0 toward DAL. Zach LaVine (SAC, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.2 toward DAL; if he plays, 0.8 toward SAC.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to DAL’s expected margin. Positive helps DAL, negative helps SAC.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +10.2 | DAL rated +0.8, SAC -10 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | +0.1 | DAL 3 days, SAC 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.4 | Value of regulars on the injury report: DAL 5.6, SAC 3.6 |
| Leo’s margin | +11.7 | DAL by 11.7 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
- Dylan Cardwell Out Calf Strain
- Zach LaVine Day to day Elbow Soreness · counted, 34 min a game
- Maxime Raynaud Out Knee Dislocated
- Keegan Murray Out Ankle
- Ben Simmons Out Achilles Surgery
- Tarik Biberovic Out Heel Inflammation
- Dereck Lively II Out Foot Surgery
- Kyrie Irving Day to day Knee · counted, 28.8 min a game
- Santi Aldama Out Knee Surgery
- Sergio de Larrea Out Knee Strain · counted, 11.8 min a game
Form
0-6 this season · 109.3 scored, 128.3 allowed a game
- L 105-136 at MEM 10-31
- L 120-132 at NO 10-29
- L 103-130 at SA 10-27
- L 112-123 vs MEM 10-25
- L 120-128 vs POR 10-23
4-2 this season · 114.3 scored, 111.8 allowed a game
- W 116-111 vs HOU 10-30
- W 120-96 vs OKC 10-28
- W 113-109 at MIA 10-26
- L 106-122 vs SA 10-24
- W 121-105 at IND 10-23
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | 6 | 37.2 | 16 | 16.4 | 15.8 | 7.3 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 6 | 36.5 | 26.3 | 29.2 | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Zach LaVine Day to day | 6 | 34 | 23.5 | 22.6 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 6 | 29.3 | 14 | 15.6 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 6 | 29 | 12.5 | 12 | 6 | 1 |
| Keegan Murray Out | 2 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0.5 |
| Emanuel Sharp | 6 | 17.8 | 3.8 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 4 | 17.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 6 | 33.7 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 8.2 | 1.2 |
| Cooper Flagg | 5 | 32.4 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 6 | 6.6 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 6 | 29.7 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 6 | 1.7 |
| Kyrie Irving Day to day | 5 | 28.8 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 |
| Naji Marshall | 3 | 27.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 5.7 |
| Max Christie | 6 | 26.5 | 8.3 | 9 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Daniel Gafford | 6 | 23.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 7 | 2.5 |
| Caleb Martin | 2 | 19.5 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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