NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · FedExForum
Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. IND at MEM.
Indiana Pacers17%Leo win chance
Memphis Grizzlies83%Leo win chanceProjected score: IND 109, MEM 122 (total 231). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has MEM by 13
- Team strength: MEM rates 7.7 pts better than IND on results so far.
- Injuries: IND is missing more, 4.0 pts toward MEM.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to MEM.
What could still move it. Quinten Post (MEM, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward IND; if he plays, 0.2 toward MEM.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to MEM’s expected margin. Positive helps MEM, negative helps IND.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +7.7 | MEM rated +2.8, IND -5.4 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | MEM 2 days, IND 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +4.0 | Value of regulars on the injury report: MEM 2.6, IND 20.6 |
| Leo’s margin | +13.4 | MEM by 13.4 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Ivica Zubac Out Ankle Sprain
- Kelly Oubre Jr. Day to day Knee Bruise · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 20.4 min a game
- Obi Toppin Out Back Soreness · in Leo’s number, plays 14.4 min a game
- T.J. McConnell Out Hamstring Strain
- Johnny Furphy Out Knee Surgery
- Ben Sheppard Out Knee
- Tyrese Haliburton Out Hamstring Strain · in Leo’s number, plays 33 min a game
- Quinten Post Day to day Ankle Not Specified · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 15 min a game
- Scotty Pippen Jr. Out Back Soreness · in Leo’s number, plays 16.2 min a game
Form
2-6 this season · 111.8 scored, 115.6 allowed a game
- L 104-108 vs ATL 11-02
- L 90-98 vs BKN 11-01
- L 125-145 at MIA 10-30
- L 109-114 vs PHI 10-28
- L 102-110 at MIL 10-26
6-1 this season · 123 scored, 110.1 allowed a game
- L 134-135 vs NO 11-02
- W 136-105 vs SAC 10-31
- W 124-103 at POR 10-29
- W 110-105 at UTAH 10-26
- W 123-112 at SAC 10-25
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton Out | 4 | 33 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 4.5 | 9.5 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 6 | 32.7 | 18.5 | 18.6 | 2.2 | 7.3 |
| Pascal Siakam | 7 | 32.3 | 21.4 | 19.4 | 7.4 | 4 |
| Jarace Walker | 8 | 24.9 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.1 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. Day to day | 7 | 23.3 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Obi Toppin Out | 5 | 23 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 5.2 | 1.2 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 6 | 23 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Quenton Jackson | 8 | 21.9 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 3 | 2.8 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 7 | 32 | 17.4 | 18 | 10.3 | 5.6 |
| Ty Jerome | 6 | 31.2 | 28.2 | 24.8 | 3.5 | 5.7 |
| Cedric Coward | 6 | 28.7 | 12.8 | 14 | 8.7 | 2.5 |
| Jaylen Wells | 7 | 28.1 | 12.7 | 12 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| Jerami Grant | 7 | 24.3 | 9.4 | 9 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Zach Edey | 6 | 20 | 6.8 | 7 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Javon Small | 1 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| Isaiah Stewart | 6 | 19.7 | 12.8 | 14.6 | 3.8 | 0.7 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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