NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · American Airlines Center
Brooklyn Nets vs Dallas Mavericks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. BKN at DAL.
Brooklyn Nets24%Leo win chance
Dallas Mavericks76%Leo win chanceBoth have DAL winning: Leo by 9.5, DraftKings by 7.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: BKN 107, DAL 116 (total 223). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has DAL 76%, but the price is -324, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has DAL by 9.5
- Team strength: DAL rates 5.6 pts better than BKN on results so far.
- Back to back: BKN played last night, 2.0 pts toward DAL.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to DAL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to DAL’s expected margin. Positive helps DAL, negative helps BKN.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +5.6 | DAL rated PK, BKN -5.9 points against an average team |
| Back to back | +2.0 | BKN played last night |
| Rest | +0.1 | DAL 2 days, BKN 1 day (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.4 | Value of regulars on the injury report: DAL 1, BKN 2.7 |
| Leo’s margin | +9.9 | DAL by 9.9 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Grant Nelson Day to day Knee
- Mikel Brown Jr. Out Rest · in Leo’s number, plays 23.3 min a game
- Egor Demin Out Leg Bruise · in Leo’s number, plays 21.8 min a game
- Sergio de Larrea Out Knee Strain · in Leo’s number, plays 11.8 min a game
- Tarik Biberovic Out Heel Inflammation
- Dereck Lively II Out Foot Surgery
Form
2-7 this season · 108.2 scored, 114.1 allowed a game
- L 121-124 at ATL 11-07
- W 114-104 vs CHA 11-04
- L 90-103 at NY 11-02
- W 98-90 at IND 11-01
- L 94-110 vs DET 10-30
5-4 this season · 112.1 scored, 110.9 allowed a game
- W 112-100 vs UTAH 11-06
- L 111-112 at SA 11-04
- L 100-115 vs SAC 11-02
- W 116-111 vs HOU 10-30
- W 120-96 vs OKC 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 9 | 33.8 | 20.8 | 19.4 | 7.1 | 5.1 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 9 | 33.4 | 21.8 | 21 | 7.6 | 1.2 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 9 | 24.1 | 7.7 | 8 | 7.4 | 3.8 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. Out | 7 | 23.3 | 12.9 | 15.2 | 2.1 | 3.9 |
| Keon Ellis | 8 | 22.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Nolan Traore | 9 | 22.2 | 12.8 | 15.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Egor Demin Out | 4 | 21.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Noah Clowney | 9 | 21.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 5 | 0.8 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 9 | 34.7 | 15.8 | 16 | 7.8 | 1.3 |
| Cooper Flagg | 8 | 34.4 | 23.9 | 23.2 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Kyrie Irving | 7 | 29.7 | 21.4 | 22.2 | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Naji Marshall | 6 | 26.3 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 3 | 5.3 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 9 | 26.2 | 7 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 1.6 |
| Daniel Gafford | 9 | 22.7 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6 | 1.9 |
| Max Christie | 8 | 22 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Caleb Martin | 5 | 18.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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