NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · American Airlines Center
Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. UTAH at DAL.
Utah Jazz27%Leo win chance
Dallas Mavericks73%Leo win chanceBoth have DAL winning: Leo by 8.5, DraftKings by 6.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: UTAH 110, DAL 118 (total 228). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has DAL 73%, but the price is -264, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has DAL by 8.5
- Team strength: DAL rates 6.0 pts better than UTAH on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to DAL.
- Injuries: UTAH is missing more, 0.9 pts toward DAL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to DAL’s expected margin. Positive helps DAL, negative helps UTAH.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +6.0 | DAL rated -0.5, UTAH -6.8 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | DAL 2 days, UTAH 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.9 | Value of regulars on the injury report: DAL 1, UTAH 4.9 |
| Leo’s margin | +8.5 | DAL by 8.5 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Jusuf Nurkic Out Foot Strain
- Jaren Jackson Jr. Out Knee Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 26 min a game
- Trey Alexander Out Knee Bruise
- Sergio de Larrea Out Knee Strain · in Leo’s number, plays 11.8 min a game
- Santi Aldama Out Knee Surgery
- Max Christie Day to day Hip Not Specified · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 23.9 min a game
- Tarik Biberovic Out Heel Inflammation
- Dereck Lively II Out Foot Surgery
Form
1-7 this season · 107.8 scored, 119 allowed a game
- L 113-120 at NO 11-04
- L 97-119 at SA 11-02
- L 90-112 vs POR 10-31
- L 111-117 vs SA 10-28
- L 105-110 vs MEM 10-26
4-4 this season · 112.1 scored, 112.3 allowed a game
- L 111-112 at SA 11-04
- L 100-115 vs SAC 11-02
- W 116-111 vs HOU 10-30
- W 120-96 vs OKC 10-28
- W 113-109 at MIA 10-26
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | 8 | 32.4 | 22 | 22.2 | 4 | 5.9 |
| Ace Bailey | 8 | 30.6 | 12.5 | 13 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 7 | 30.4 | 17.1 | 17.2 | 6.6 | 2.1 |
| Darryn Peterson | 8 | 30.3 | 12.6 | 13.8 | 4 | 3.8 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. Out | 4 | 26 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 5 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 7 | 24.4 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 1.9 |
| Josh Okogie | 7 | 18 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| Mo Bamba | 5 | 17.8 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 0.6 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 8 | 34.9 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 8 | 1.4 |
| Cooper Flagg | 7 | 34.6 | 24.3 | 24.8 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Kyrie Irving | 6 | 30 | 22.7 | 24.2 | 4 | 4.8 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 8 | 26.9 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 |
| Naji Marshall | 5 | 26.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 3.4 | 5.4 |
| Max Christie Day to day | 7 | 23.9 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| Daniel Gafford | 8 | 23.3 | 9.1 | 11 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Caleb Martin | 4 | 20 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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