NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET · Arena CDMX
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. DEN at IND.
Denver Nuggets73%Leo win chance
Indiana Pacers27%Leo win chanceBoth have DEN winning: Leo by 8, DraftKings by 7.5. They are 0.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: DEN 119, IND 111 (total 230). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has DEN 73%, but the price is -324, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has DEN by 8
- Team strength: DEN rates 6.8 pts better than IND on results so far.
- Injuries: IND is missing more, 3.3 pts toward DEN.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to IND.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to IND’s expected margin. Positive helps IND, negative helps DEN.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -6.8 | IND rated -4.7, DEN +2.6 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | IND 3 days, DEN 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -3.3 | Value of regulars on the injury report: IND 15.5, DEN 0.7 |
| Leo’s margin | -8.3 | DEN by 8.3 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- DeMar DeRozan Day to day Back Spasms · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 21.6 min a game
- Julian Strawther Out Knee Sprain
- T.J. McConnell Out Hamstring Strain
- Kelly Oubre Jr. Day to day Calf Bruise · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 18.1 min a game
- Johnny Furphy Out Knee Surgery
- Ben Sheppard Out Knee
- Tyrese Haliburton Out Hamstring Strain · in Leo’s number, plays 33 min a game
Form
4-3 this season · 115.4 scored, 114.7 allowed a game
- W 128-109 vs TOR 11-04
- L 110-118 vs POR 11-02
- W 127-120 at PHX 10-30
- W 104-91 at NO 10-28
- L 114-134 vs GS 10-26
3-6 this season · 111.2 scored, 114.2 allowed a game
- W 107-103 at MEM 11-04
- L 104-108 vs ATL 11-02
- L 90-98 vs BKN 11-01
- L 125-145 at MIA 10-30
- L 109-114 vs PHI 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 7 | 36.9 | 25.4 | 26 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| Nikola Jokic | 7 | 35.9 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| Christian Braun | 7 | 35 | 14.6 | 16 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Aaron Gordon | 7 | 29.4 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 |
| Cameron Johnson | 4 | 27.3 | 9 | 9 | 4.3 | 2 |
| DeMar DeRozan Day to day | 6 | 25.2 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 2 | 2.7 |
| Trevon Brazile | 7 | 22.1 | 8 | 7 | 6.4 | 0.4 |
| Bryce Hopkins | 5 | 18.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard | 7 | 33.4 | 19 | 19.8 | 2.1 | 6.9 |
| Tyrese Haliburton Out | 4 | 33 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 4.5 | 9.5 |
| Pascal Siakam | 8 | 32 | 21.3 | 19.2 | 7.1 | 3.8 |
| Jarace Walker | 9 | 24 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 7 | 24 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 2 | 1.9 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. Day to day | 7 | 23.3 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Obi Toppin | 6 | 22.3 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 5.2 | 1.2 |
| Quenton Jackson | 9 | 21.9 | 10.4 | 14.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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