NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Target Center
Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. UTAH at MIN.
Utah Jazz15%Leo win chance
Minnesota Timberwolves85%Leo win chanceBoth have MIN winning: Leo by 14, DraftKings by 11.5. They are 2.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: UTAH 107, MIN 121 (total 228). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has MIN 85%, but the price is -650, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has MIN by 14
- Team strength: MIN rates 13.6 pts better than UTAH on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to MIN.
- Injuries: MIN is missing more, 1.0 pts toward UTAH.
What could still move it. Keyonte George (UTAH, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.0 toward MIN; if he plays, 0.7 toward UTAH. Lauri Markkanen (UTAH, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.9 toward MIN; if he plays, 0.6 toward UTAH.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to MIN’s expected margin. Positive helps MIN, negative helps UTAH.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +13.6 | MIN rated +7.3, UTAH -7.1 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | MIN 2 days, UTAH 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -1.0 | Value of regulars on the injury report: MIN 15.1, UTAH 10.6 |
| Leo’s margin | +14.3 | MIN by 14.3 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Keyonte George Day to day Illness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 32.3 min a game
- Lauri Markkanen Day to day Wrist Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 30.9 min a game
- Jusuf Nurkic Out Foot Strain
- Jaren Jackson Jr. Out Knee Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 26 min a game
- Anthony Edwards Out Knee Surgery · in Leo’s number, plays 33.8 min a game
- Donte DiVincenzo Out Achilles Surgery
Form
1-8 this season · 106.9 scored, 118.2 allowed a game
- L 100-112 at DAL 11-06
- L 113-120 at NO 11-04
- L 97-119 at SA 11-02
- L 90-112 vs POR 10-31
- L 111-117 vs SA 10-28
7-3 this season · 118.4 scored, 107.7 allowed a game
- W 115-109 at NO 11-06
- W 117-107 at HOU 11-04
- W 112-100 vs MIL 11-02
- L 111-121 at SA 10-31
- W 127-101 vs LAC 10-30
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George Day to day | 9 | 32.3 | 21.3 | 20.2 | 4.2 | 6.2 |
| Lauri Markkanen Day to day | 8 | 30.9 | 18 | 16.4 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Ace Bailey | 9 | 30.4 | 12.4 | 12 | 7.1 | 1.8 |
| Darryn Peterson | 9 | 30.2 | 13.6 | 15.2 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. Out | 4 | 26 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 5 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 8 | 24.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Josh Okogie | 8 | 18.8 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Mo Bamba | 5 | 17.8 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 0.6 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 10 | 34 | 17.1 | 18.4 | 6.2 | 3.7 |
| Anthony Edwards Out | 4 | 33.8 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 10 | 31.5 | 17.3 | 21.6 | 5 | 4.3 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 10 | 31.2 | 13.1 | 13 | 5.9 | 3 |
| Rudy Gobert | 9 | 29.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 11.8 | 1.3 |
| LaMelo Ball | 10 | 27.6 | 17.7 | 22 | 3.3 | 6.1 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 7 | 22 | 12 | 12.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Trey Lyles | 10 | 18.2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.8 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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